Merv's Politically Incorrect Audio Blog

With more information (information that we as a nation should have solicited much earlier from countries like Taiwan and South Korea, instead of grown-to-know over time by re-experience and re-analysis) we have a better handle on things.

We know that social distancing works. We know that masks work. We know if these rules are followed, then buses and airplanes are safe. We know how to treat it better (steroids if inflammation). We know that people with heart conditions, diabetes, and cancer are particularly susceptible. We know to be extremely careful with nursing homes (which have accounted for 40% of deaths).

The infections rates have been up and down, but we are seeing fewer deaths. We are seeing increases in the boonies states, but their overall numbers are low.

Personally, I like seeing the state by state approach, where the people of each state can weigh death-risk to freedom for themselves. The orderly Asian side of me is bothered that I see the occasional person in airport security lines without masks though. I'm pretty sure in the countries that have controlled SARSv2 very well, it would have been: no flight for you Porker.

 

People in the now like to think that we are special. We aren't. Politics has always been ugly. Sometimes uglier, other times less so. As a naturalized citizen and I amazed at how most Americans know nothing of their own history. What's happening now is nothing compared to FDR and the New Deal. People felt so afraid of that "socialist despotic power grab" that a fricking Constitution Amendment was passed to limit the POTUS to two terms. Does anyone know how hard it is to pass an Amendment!

(George Washington intentionally stepped aside after two-terms to serve as an example. It become an unwritten rule until it was broken by FDR).

We have enough food, and freedom to call our senators poopyheads. Also, over 200 years of tradition - following good-habits.

Saudi Arabia will be fucked as they have less and less oil to pump out, and oil becomes less relevant. MBS is making reforms, but they won't come fast enough. People are already hurting because early on Saudi Arabia could afford being a welfare state where every other male kid could get a PhD in religious studies (instead of law, finance, business, engineering, etc.). This is no longer and few know how to wipe their own ass. Expect more unhappy kids willing to blame the USA for all their ills and explode themselves for virgins in paradise.

I hope we only contain and not get involved in any hot war.

UAE may be better off. They've already divested from oil, kept their native population low, and only allow guest workers temporary residence.

 

COVID numbers require context.

In California, the number of people who have died from SARSv2 is a little under 17,000 as of today 10/17/2020. Of this 17,000, 6855 are in Los Angeles County.

In 2017, the total number of deaths in California from any cause was 268,000. It will be interesting to run analysis a few years later to see how many additional deaths were actually because of SARSv2 (people could have died from the flu, diabetes, heart-attack, or cancer, anyway).

This is just me, but I think California can relax a bit by now. Maybe just lock down the city of Los Angeles (because people tend to be mindless in that city) and open up the restaurants and movies (with social distancing) everywhere else in CA. A pandemic is a pandemic. Shit is supposed to happen in life. People are supposed to die from shit they never expected. Good public policy never looks at the individual, but at the whole.

One can make the heart wrenching case about the loving father, mother, grandmother who died. One can also argue about the thousands and thousands of people who lost their businesses, jobs, homes, cars, savings, etc.*

This is the human condition. We aren't Star Trek United Federation of Planets yet even though we want to be. We're much closer to the ancient Greeks than we think.

P.S.

Santa Clara County has had 374 SARSv2 deaths as of 10/17/2020. It's population has been stable around 1.93M for a few years now. Near 12,000 people died from all causes in 2016. Santa Clara Country should be opening movie theaters by now if you ask me.

 

We don't know what Trump would do or not do in any hypothetical situation. As far as allies, we are treaty or law bound to defend some allies. If there was an attack on NATO, I would probably bet that Trump would weasel out instead of getting involved. Time and time again, despite his verbal bluster, he's intervened far less that I thought he would.

If you are worried about money corrupting us into wars, I'd worry more about the Carlyle Group, the establishment hawks, and the Hillary Clinton Foundation.

Trump's foreign policy in terms of war or no war isn't conservative. There Republican (and Democratic) hawks who want us to get involved anywhere and everywhere such as Bolton. Trump didn't want anything more to do with Afghanistan. Bolton wanted the other way. Bolton lost.

The idea of getting us out of these wars came from Bannon (as with Trump platform), who got it from the time before GWB invented the concept of pre-emptive war. From after Vietnam to GWB (Nixon to Clinton), the USA's policy was containment. Do just enough to keep the bad guys away, but don't get entangled. This is probably the reason why Clinton waited so long to do anything about the mess in the former Yugoslav states.

Pulling out of endless wars is not the same thing as not intervening (that is not getting entangled). Freedom of navigation patrols are being conducted in the South China Sea to make a bold statement to China. We are conducting military exercises with our allies in the Pacific. We are getting India on board, cooperating with them on F16 production (India was once closer to the Soviet sphere of influence). We are selling more advanced weapons to our partners so they can defend themselves. I've been seeing more of a shift toward the IndoPacific in the past four years.

Obama, on the other hand, wouldn't even sell F16s to Taiwan because he was afraid of China. We suck in the IndoPacific (was Asia Pacific) because the Obama and Biden surrender monkeys only talked about "pivot", but didn't do jack shit in order appease China.

I see no loss of allies with us getting us out of civil wars Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq. All of our European allies have already gotten the f**k outta there. Maybe the Saudis might be ticked that we won't help them invade Yemen, but f**k that shit after seeing the messes in that area. I am sure our friends in NATO wouldn't hold it against us.

However, I do agree that histrionics to pull out of NATO or asking our NATO partners to stick with their military commitments will piss off our allies in NATO such as Germany, who continue to be cheapskates. The fact is, the USA is in debt. We can't keep paying for other countries' defense, especially if they are already rich countries who can do it on their own. Friends aren't friends if they keep insisting that you keep paying for their french fries and milkshake.

 

Absolutely not. I've mentioned GWB many times - how he deviated from our prior policy of containment to entanglement. Or how he was dumb in thinking that democracy can work in those areas. The US was high (drug pun intended) in that post Soviet collapse era, thinking we could export democracy and make the world a better place.

Also, let's not forget almost the entire Congress including Democrats were behind this plan of invading Iraq and removing Saddam.

Does everything need to be in bold? It's hard to read.

 

This is no different from GWB exclaiming "Mission Accomplished".

ISIS is not destroyed. They will come back. Mark my words. We just don't know when. It could be five years. It could be another twenty. Too much strife between Sunnis and Shiites in that Iraq / Syria region. I just hope that when they come back, we do not get involved. They as a people need to sort this out for themselves, even if this is the result:

https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/The_Alternative_Factor_(episode)

 

It absolutely does if Trump started a hot or warm war, or escalated one. Except unlike Obama or GWB before him, he didn't.

Sorry for the multiple relies. The bold blinded my eyes.

 

The "peace" deal process has only resulted in more attacks from both sides for positioning before it's implemented. It's a clusterfuck. Trump should care less about not losing face and just leave like what Nixon did.

The official Afghan government is doomed. They will get run over by the Taliban next year and they know it.

Their only hope is a new POTUS where the warmonger complex can whisper in his ear to send 20k troops to prop up the Afghan government. I doubt this will happen. Americans gotta be sick of wars by now. No one will dare say this, but we lost the war, like the Soviets before us.

 

This is something we need to get used to as Americans. People in the EU get attacked all the time by terrorists and had been well before 9-11. Americans attacked by terrorists shouldn't mean we get into wars that we can't win or destabilize authoritarian governments that actually help keep the crazies locked up.

Or if we do go to war, let's do it right and not on the cheap. Full destruction, rebuilding, demoralization, and occupation like what we did in WW2.