The Coronavirus Thread

Discussion in 'Random Thoughts' started by purr1n, Mar 16, 2020.

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  1. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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  2. Biodegraded

    Biodegraded Friend

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    Yes, I should have made it clear that I wasn't suggesting not to follow recommendations about social distancing, or that transmission was impossible in the absence of symptoms. Very aggessive testing and distancing and self-isolation in the presence of symptoms or suspicion of infection (e.g. close contact with an infected person) should all be encouraged.
     
  3. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    It's like what my son said: If it were me, I'd be out and about; but I don't want to kill mom or my grandparents.
     
  4. mscott58

    mscott58 Friend

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    Worried at all that "dad" wasn't on his list? ;)
     
  5. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    He assumes I'm a survivor. It's a given.
     
  6. Ice-man

    Ice-man Friend

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    Little boys love mom, little girls love dad. It's just the way of the world.
     
  7. mscott58

    mscott58 Friend

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    Too true. I have one little man and two little ladies, so that works out well for me. Luckily the two cats worship mama (and they're also boys) so all is in balance.
     
  8. AndreaR_94

    AndreaR_94 Acquaintance

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  9. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Good time to reflect upon how the financial industry relies upon grow grow and grow. At some point, humans and their economies will stop growing. The @Psalmanazar principle dictates that circumstances such as war, famine, and disease take hold to limit growth, since grow grow and grow with no limits essentially violates the laws of the universe.

    This begs the question. How much longer can stocks with PE ratios of 1000, 40, or even 20, be sustained?
     
  10. Kernel Kurtz

    Kernel Kurtz Friend

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  11. imackler

    imackler Key Lime Pie Infected Aberdeen Wings Spy

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    Two words to calm people who are freaking out: martial law. Nice, Newsom. That'll definitely help.
     
  12. fastfwd

    fastfwd Friend

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    Is that a 'financial industry' thing, though, or is it just capitalism? I mean, you buy raw materials, pay workers to turn them into a value-added product, then sell the product for more than your costs -- boom, that's grow grow grow.

    Which is why the value of, say, the S&P 500 is basically guaranteed to rise over the long term, and more broadly it's what allows conservative long-term investors to make moderate returns even when they're holding a diverse set of mutually-hedging investments -- like stocks AND bonds, dollars AND gold, etc.
    Right: https://www.decisionproblem.com/paperclips/index2.html

    But we're VERY far from any physical-law limit at the moment.
    In times like this, P/E ratios go up (because earnings fall much further than prices). But if you mean forward P/E, I imagine that the overall ratio for the S&P 500 could drop as far as it did in 2008 -- from the current 18+ to around 12.

    But I think there will still be outliers with high P/E and forward P/E ratios. Amazon, for example, has a very high P/E already, and may be hurt less by current events than other companies.
     
  13. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Capitalism enables his, but the concept of grow grow grow isn't limited to it. The intent of the Soviet Union was to grow (which they did quite well in their own way until they imploded.) We only need to take a look capitalist countries which have grown to their limits such as Japan and maybe even Taiwan soon after. Note that these countries are islands with little in terms of energy and food resources, and flattened or flattening population. Heck, Europe isn't growing much anymore, hence their importation of African and Middle-East workers, to the chagrin of some people.

    The way I was thinking about the "grow grow grow" was more along the lines of the Western (American) mindset. Which is opposed to the the Asian attitude where one thinks "I have enough" and doesn't have the expectation of growth. Case in point. My wife's (Caucasian) family, if they can, will speak of their successes: closing the big deals, getting the hundred thousand dollar bonuses, moving into bigger houses, investments in Uber before the IPO, etc. My family simply asks me: "Do you have enough? How is your health". I will answer: "I have enough, a little extra. I'm healthy." "Good. That's good. I just want to make sure everything is good" my dad will reply*. This is good because that's all we need in life.

    When I speak to people buying homes in Taiwan, they are putting much higher down payments, but not just that. They are also able to allocate just as much as the house payment to paying off other debt (fixing up the house, furnishings) or saving. There is none of this wimpy 10-20% down, saving 0%, and hoping the economy will get better or house will be worth more in a few years to do a refinance like in the USA.

    Maybe. Climate change is looming. The air is poison in China (and neighboring countries). Interest rates are zero (or negative for German gov't bonds). Parts in what was once fertile regions of India are now dry. Coronavirus has shown how easily disease can be spread because of so many humans packed together in urban areas with ease of travel to other worldwide urban areas. These "physical law limits" must also include the unexpected; and perhaps already there in some countries.

    *There is certain beauty, a down-to-earth humility, with how this interaction is expressed in Mandarin or Taiwanese that cannot be translated into English. There could be a Japanese equivalent to this too. I'm not so sure of mainlander attitudes because they've been corrupted by Communism and only recently set free to do the dog-eat-dog or human-eat-bat thing.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2020
  14. YMO

    YMO Chief Fun Officer

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    I went into my local Publix (Southeastern Supermarket, home of the Pub Sub™). The breads were mostly out, but the bakery was making new breads, half the meats were gone but people keep restocking them. Of course no TP, PT, or paper products. Milk was half way in stock but they start putting no more than two rule. No more eggs for some weird reason. Most things were stocked just fine. However, the stereotypical Indian who was buying up all the milk didn't read the no more than two, and was bitching at the check out line like a stereotype because he told the clerk that this food is for his culture. Dude, stop being a stereotype geez.
     
  15. Pogo

    Pogo Friend

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    As a 954-Floridian, I do want to give kudos to the staff of our own home grown Publix chain these guys have been busting their humps for 3 weeks straight keeping the shelves stocked. Yet they have remained consistently helpful and cheerful under the circumstances. Good job Publix!
    Bad news for y'all in the midwest: I drove from So Fla to Tallahassee today to reposition my FSU daughter, northbound lanes were jammed with every other car and RV bearing Midwest states license plates. I hope that a bag of oranges is the only Florida souvenier they are bringing back....
     
  16. Folsom

    Folsom SARS-Cov-2 Denier - Rando

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    Well, it's a good thing that the stopped the Canadians from coming down and ransacking the shit out of small towns in the US... It's bad on an average day where my brother lives, but this made it wild.
     
  17. Biodegraded

    Biodegraded Friend

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    As much as we love to ransack your towns (small and large), we can no longer afford to - seen the exchange rate lately?
     
  18. Deep Funk

    Deep Funk Deep thoughts - Friend

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  19. songmic

    songmic Gear cycler East Asia edition

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    What I don't understand...

    This whole coronavirus thing has been ongoing for some time now. I'm currently working as a military officer, and because of the outbreak, I was denied of all leave and have been unable to go home (hence no headphones, no audio) for the last several weeks. I wanted to complain about this situation, yet everything had seemed so peaceful in SBAF so I had kept my mouth shut, and suddenly this week a coronavirus thread was created and everyone seems to be losing their minds over toilet paper. When @JK47 reviewed a bidet I thought it was just for kicks without any real context, now I realize what it was all about.

    So what exactly is going on in the outside world?
     
  20. Deep Funk

    Deep Funk Deep thoughts - Friend

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    The new flu has literally crossed over to other continents and it is claiming victims. Nobody can deny its dangers anymore. Little is known, research is ongoing.
     
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