The Coronavirus Thread

Discussion in 'Random Thoughts' started by purr1n, Mar 16, 2020.

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  1. Riotvan

    Riotvan Snoofer in the Woofer

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    I would consider obesity and all the complications that it causes underlying health problems as well.
    Insulin resistance for example seems to really mess up immune response from what i've read.
    So given the increasing % of people in the western world being obese might explain why the outlook over here is more negatively skewed.
     
  2. BillOhio

    BillOhio Friend

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    ...not to mention thousands of us at a time at a Florida beach, dozens at a time in line at Costco or the DMV, ...Starbucks being open, etc...
     
  3. Riotvan

    Riotvan Snoofer in the Woofer

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    Yeah of course people being stupid is always a factor to consider. Here in Holland i reckon we'll have a lockdown within a week just because of those people.
     
  4. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

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    And, where is this one million prediction coming from? Taking into account the numbers from other countries that effectively flattened the curve (Japan, SK, Taiwan), 1 mln would require mass suicide by self injection of COVID 19.

    https://nationalpost.com/health/how-taiwan-and-singapore-managed-to-contain-covid-19-while-letting-normal-life-go-on
    Those are places with one of the highest population density in the world. We cannot learn anything from them?

    It will be bad, I have no doubt about it, but those projections are useless except maybe to be used in planning for the response.
    Which s why, you read it carefully, is exactly the purpose why some of mathematical models projecting the spread of CV were created.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
  5. bilboda

    bilboda Florida boomer

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    In case you were wondering...“The World Health Organization recently declared coronavirus a pandemic at a time when the death count was at 4,000, presently being just over 6,500. It will surely rise no matter what precautions are taken going forward, but what is critical is some estimate of the rate.

    “By way of comparison, the toll from the flu in the United States since October ran as follows: between 36 to 51 million infections, between 370 thousand to 670 thousand flu hospitalizations, and between 22 thousand to 55 thousand flu deaths. That works out to between roughly between 230,000 to 320,000 new infections per day, and between 140 to 350 deaths per day for an overall mortality rate of between 0.044 percent to 0.152 percent.” https://www.aier.org/…/vital-information-that-is-falling-t…/
    Our current strategy would likely have a positive effect on these other flu's. Maybe we should do this every year. A new national holiday, like spring break for every one, just the stay at home version.
     
  6. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

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    This being Canada It depends on his ethnicity, gender identification etc..If for example he is one of those gender fluid native Canadians he will have a chance to meet the Prime Minister and will be handsomely compensated for how rude the general public was to him. If, on the other hand, he is one of those laid off oil patch guys visiting from Alberta, he will be nailed to a windmill power generator with Greta Thunberg in attendance.
     
  7. gaspasser

    gaspasser Flatulence Maestro

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    ^^^This is truth. Psalm for President 2020!
     
  8. Folsom

    Folsom SARS-Cov-2 Denier - Rando

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    The spread yes. But death rates didn't turn out to be what was thought. WOW and CDC show it's about 4% even though the flu is 10%. If you calculate worst case scenario world wide you can't exceed 8% for corv19.

    Mofo spreader is the issue, because everyone can get infected instead of just some people. So the danger is by the numbers.
     
  9. wadec22

    wadec22 Almost "Made"

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    The flu? 10%?! GTFO that can't be right?

    *Quick Google search shows WHO global annual estimates of flu mortality rate at .1%.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
  10. YMO

    YMO Chief Fun Officer

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    I'm in my local cigar shop at the moment. By FL Gov orders no more than 10 people in gatherings and social
    distancing. None of us are currently doing that. The Jacksonville Sheriff just walked in buying cigars and saying hi to everyone. He looked stressed but smiling. He could shut the place down, but didn't. Nice guy, but I'll continue to vote against him due to the policies, not the person.

    Can't blame him getting cigars to destress. I'm in right now doing the same thing.

    Woo.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
  11. robot zombie

    robot zombie Friend

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    The death rate calculations have always confused me. At any given time we can assume a certain number of unreported cases, right? How many people just stay home? Public sentiment implies that most people would want to get tested, but public sentiment doesn't speak for everyone. How many people don't care? How many people just couldn't get access? What about the assumed majority of asymptomatic cases?

    I just wonder how realistic death rate calculations could really be right now with new cases showing up all of the time. It really is a question of how many cases we don't know about. The bigger that number, the lower the death rate in actuality.

    Not to downplay the seriousness of it. I more tend to think the flu comparisons aren't that useful to begin with. It has a lot of similar symptoms, but this isn't the flu. Not that it matters anyway. It could be another flu pandemic and that could still get pretty dire. Spanish flu was just another influenza strain. One of the worst pandemics in modern history. People now only remember the bird flu and swine flu scares. Nobody alive now remembers the Spanish flu. All of those people are dead as hell.

    So basically, depending on which flu pandemic we want to compare this to, it could be just another flu season, or a terrible, globe-ravaging disease.

    Though if we are gonna make the comparison, zoonotic ones tend to be worse than human-borne mutations. Our immune systems have no idea what to do with these wacky animal illnesses. Regardless of the death rate it still has to be taken pretty seriously, especially given that there's not as much to go by regarding how this works, and what we do know can't fully be covered by previous knowledge of the flu. A real treatment is needed. Till then, the fewer people who get it and wind up hospitalized, the better.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
  12. elmoe

    elmoe Friend

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    You're right buddy. I think you should go around town licking door handles to prove your point.
     
  13. Folsom

    Folsom SARS-Cov-2 Denier - Rando

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    No one goes to seek treatment for the flu.

    From John Hopkins;

    "COVID-19: Approximately 11,906 deaths reported worldwide; 260 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 21, 2020.*

    Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year."

    It's about the rate of contraction, not how deadly corv19 is

    P.S. your .1% is from NY Times. LOL
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
  14. lm4der

    lm4der A very good sport - Friend

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    This covid-19 has a faster spread rate and is more deadly than the regular flu. The death rate of those infected with covid-19 is somewhere between 2-3%. That is much higher than the regular flu, which has a death rate of 0.1%. So, put another way, 1 in 50 die from covid-19, whereas 1 in 1000 die from the regular flu.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
  15. Folsom

    Folsom SARS-Cov-2 Denier - Rando

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    The problem is estimations. Actual hospital admissions the flu is worse. I guess take it however you want. It's just important we lower transmission and get over this.
     
  16. wadec22

    wadec22 Almost "Made"

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    I see you edited your post, removing the part mocking the NYT. But to reply to the part you redacted, my .1% was from the WHO flu fact sheet (probably same place NYT got it).
     
  17. Kernel Kurtz

    Kernel Kurtz Friend

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    Not to mention comparing an entire flu season to what, 3 weeks since SARS-COV-2 started spreading here? It has only just begun. Perhaps in a few months you can start making such comparisons.
     
  18. Folsom

    Folsom SARS-Cov-2 Denier - Rando

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    The issue with the number is it's wholly estimated. From what we know those that seek medical attention the flu is worse.

    It really isn't important though. Sometimes I'm just in the mood to be anal about numbers.
     
  19. zerodeefex

    zerodeefex SBAF's Imelda Marcos

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    Reverted your edit so you can't hide that you're an asshat.

    The reality is that we've got embarassing data to date due to China and others trying to sweep the true impact under the rug. You think the 30% increase in YoY pneumonia cases in Moscow really is unrelated?

    Don't be a jackass here.
     
  20. BillOhio

    BillOhio Friend

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    I doubt that Italy would compare what they're currently dealing with to a flu season. We've got 1 or 2 percent of the ventilators we would need if everyone gets sick at the same time and as of a few days ago the line at the DMV was half way down the block, Starbucks was open, long lines at Costco, etc.. When you hear about Amazon wanting to put 100,000 more people in their warehouses, for example, you can see where this thing could explode over the next few weeks.
     
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