The Coronavirus Thread

Second Amazon fulfillment employee got the virus, and this time in my backyard!!!!!! Yay!!

https://www.jacksonville.com/news/2...8GQgHjXajINDvcLgoVZumaX75KJlVb2vI9N6Tm5gmRLec

 

I think you may be able to eliminate that uncertainty by looking at deaths rather than confirmed cases. This is just an order-of-magnitude guess, not anywhere close to an attempt to fix the number precisely... But if you divide the number of deaths today by the ratio of deaths to cases that we know from places that are doing very large-scale testing (call that ratio, say, 2%), that should tell you how many people got infected on the day that today's dead got infected.

Work back from today to the onset of symptoms (SWAG: ten days) and then subtract a few more days for incubation -- call it 15 days since all those people were infected. The number of deaths is doubling every 3 days or so, so all else equal, the number of new infections would be too. 15 days is five doublings, or 32x.

So... If there were 200 deaths in the USA today, there were 200/0.02 = 10000 new infections 15 days ago. If circumstances today were the same as back then, there would have been 32 x 10000 = 320000 new infections today.

Fortunately, much of the country has been practicing social distancing for at least the last week, so maybe the number of new infections is now doubling more slowly than the backward-looking number of deaths. Still, though, the number of new infections in the USA must be much, much higher than the number of reported confirmed cases.

 

It's possible under the current Florida "stand your ground" laws that you could shoot any delivery driver approaching your property and not be charged.
Just sayin....

 

@purr1n - Were you serious about the loaner guidance? Was just about to ship the Element-X out to the next victim, I mean member...

 

Consider looking at "Confirmed Cases & Deaths" graph at https://infection2020.com/. Don't bother with the "linear" graph... that is the "Panic" graph. Instead, look at the log graph - that is what shows the rate of change in the number over time. In the US, the rate of change hasn't... well... changed. The hope is that we see the confirned cases line start to flatten out once we get 2-3 wks into this social distancing effort, and the deaths line flatten out 2-3 wks afterwards.

 

I was gonna get a Bifrost 2 but hookers and blow sounds good.

 

But it will for ~3days on outer packaging in indoor conditions, more if its colder, less if its dryer.

If you're in in Arizona or New Mexico it's probably safe to lick the package when you get it.

Now, I don't know about the USSA, here delivery guys that still operate at all wear masks and double layer gloves, but just in case the box of ZMF goodies I got yesterday is spending a week outdoors.

 

Life is short. Bifrost can wait.

 

He's "just warning y'all." about things getting crazy around there. But he obviously took the doughnut. At least.

 

Yeah, the whole gag is the doughnut. Classic comedy, wouldn't be surprised to see Larry the Cable Guy do that bit...

 

Duh... I'm slow!

 

This will sound entertaining even if the world is about to explode. On a side note, how did I miss this thread?

 

You found out that he took the doughnut, but you do not know the significance????? You must be kidding me!!
The deal was a roll of toilet paper for a BJ and a doughnut. You see him eating the doughnut which seriously implies that he also got a BJ.

EXCUSE me., mscott58 got it. I guess his beautiful kitties helped him.

 

Tonight we're gonna party like it's 1999.

 

We won't be getting any stimulus checks at my house anyway. My girlfriend didn't file in 2018 and I earn enough not to qualify. Even though the state I work in has a "stay home advisory" and everything is closed, I'm deemed essential apparently. We fall under critical manufacturing and defense base. Already got my "traveling letter" saying so.
Everything I look at says to stay home but I'm actually expected to be at work. Very confusing times. Not complaining I still have a job and overtime and it's busy. We make aircraft stuff. Who knows how long that will last.