Mobile futures: MSFT out of Phone, Intel cans Atom

Well it's turning out to be quite a month for mobile tech! First in the interest of full disclosure, I am a Microsoft employee. I operate solely in my personal capacity posting here, and do not represent Microsoft in any way in this regard.

So, Windows Mobile (Phone) is effectively dead, with Terry Myerson stating MS will 'streamline' and 'focus' on business phones, and will support vendors etc. in that space. Barring some uber-magical XBOX/Surface phone in some mythical future, I take that as saying MS is out of the phone game.

Almost simultaneously Intel cuts the entire Atom line, leaving Apollo Lake to take up the tablet slack in its place. Ironically this means MS needs to double down on Windows on ARM, despite bowing out of the phone game, if it is to be relevant, as ARM will eat up the Atom market that Apollo can't keep a hold of.

Convertibles etc. will still be powered by Apollo Lake and up, but the 10" and below tablet market seems to be blown wide open: If they shift to ARM (as seems the likely option) Android takes the lion's share. Sad for me, because I actually want Windows (full) on a tablet, preferably 8".

So does MSFT, having finally conceded the smartphone fight, get in a similar ring with tablets and take a bludgeoning from Android over the next decade? Or is there enough traction to wage a meaningful MS vs. Android war on ARM? Continuum is pretty cool, and my experience on Android with MS so far is actually better than Windows Phone, so they can build for either/both effectively. UWP is also no small achievement, so if it be on ARM at least there's one stack to write for. Where does this place Apple, with its declining sales?

What does your crystal ball say?

 

Mobile is a cut throat market. Company after company is lured in to the space by the astronomical market caps only to find out that sustainable profits are extremely difficult to attain.