Merv's Politically Incorrect Audio Blog

Discussion in 'SBAF Blogs' started by purr1n, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

    Staff Member Friend BWC
    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2015
    Likes Received:
    68,084
    Dislikes Received:
    112
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Antarctica
    Something doesn't makes sense here. Obviously you have means and are well off enough that you could pay off your mortgage at any time.

    However, why did you choose to the tack on yet another 30 years to your mortgage for a 42 year term for your refi(s)? Why didn't you refinance and choose a term to keep the original amortization schedule from 22 years ago? If you got $1.5M in the market, does that $237 per month (or whatever amount) lower payment (because you pushed the final payment date back) really matter that much?

    My argument was about the ridiculousness of the 30-year term, mentioning how in the 20s before the New Deal with associated gov't structures, mortgage terms were three to five years. Are you saying that you would prefer a society where the 30 year mortgage is standard along with the side effects of such as inflated asset prices?
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2020
  2. Metro

    Metro Friend

    Friend
    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2016
    Likes Received:
    975
    Dislikes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    San Francisco
    Unless you know how to work the system, like our president.
     
  3. crenca

    crenca Friend

    Friend
    Joined:
    May 26, 2017
    Likes Received:
    1,305
    Dislikes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    Southern New Mexico
    Regular (and obviously, but it needs to be said because some want to make it an indicator of something untoward) legal bankruptcy is the norm among land speculators/developers. It's just how that business is done. I suppose it's no different than how Biden's political work gets his son multi-million dollar yet strange and vague "consultancy" in far away places like Ukraine. It's all just part of a days work...
     
  4. YMO

    YMO it's not drinking alone if you're on Zoom

    Friend
    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2018
    Likes Received:
    5,200
    Dislikes Received:
    35
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    DUVALLL-904
    I just love how much slime balls my local City Government is.

    https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/arti...on-loan-to-lot-j-could-take-50-years-to-repay

    This was announced this week to improve the buildings near the Jag stadium to improve. Keep in mind a few months ago the City Counsel didn't want to raise taxes due to budget loss and everything with Covid-19 and stuff. Keep in mind the Jag owner is also a GOP donor, on top of Jax having a GOP Mayor (former head of FL GOP) and a super majority GOP City Counsel. Aka this shit will fly out with colors out of their asses.

    I didn't tell you bums to use my money for this crap when there's no interest in this crap, considering just three months ago you same bums say we need to "conserve" our spending. You guys know we need to cut programs down sooner or later, but let the pebs duke it out while you guys have a party.

    I also remember when we had our last mayor (a Democrat) who was pretty conservative on spending. However, who keep overruling him on tax increases? The GOP majority City Counsel. :mad:

    I just wish people can admit Trump is just another high spending big broke ballin Democrat with the GOP colors.
     
    robot zombie and Senorx12562 like this.
  5. ultrabike

    ultrabike Measurbator - Admin

    Staff Member Friend MZR
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2015
    Likes Received:
    9,609
    Dislikes Received:
    19
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Irvine CA
    BTW. I was saying all along to not refinance. LOL! But if you can get less years (going from 30-year to 20-year or less when you are less than 10 years on the loan) and you can lower monthly due to significantly lower interest rate... I would say, refinance.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2020
    Philimon and robot zombie like this.
  6. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

    Staff Member Friend BWC
    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2015
    Likes Received:
    68,084
    Dislikes Received:
    112
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Antarctica
    It's the long term that sucks you dry. Think of this as a perma-lifetime tax.

    400k loan on 3.8 APR* for a 5 year term: total loan cost is 439,833
    400k loan on 3.8 APR* for 30 years: total loan cost is 670,989
    400k loan on 3.8 APR* for 45 years: total loan cost is 835,527

    * Which is your higher than the "rate" you think you got and which most people quote because they want to feel good about themselves or brag that they got a 3.0% mortgage loan when they probably really didn't. APR is higher because it includes all the other shit, lender fees, closing costs, tacked on to the loan. The APR assumes all this stuff over the term. Yes, bankers are good are tricking people to put more shit into the loan, rather than as a fixed cost up front. There is no such thing as "no closing costs".

    IMO, mortgages over 5 years should be made illegal. It's flat out blatant usury and why many religions ban usury. There's the argument that this will make a lot more people unable to afford homes. This argument is bullshit because the market adjusts - it always does. New Deal and FOHL was good for that time to get things going by introducing the 15-year mortgage (still not too bad). But as with all good intentions to jump start things, they are never pulled back. In time, 30-years became the de-facto term. I would not be surprised if our 30-year mortgages become 50-years as the standard since fewer can afford to home, especially in metropolitan areas. In fact, 40-years is already a thing. But really, the same thing is already going on with today's serial refis.

    In terms of happiness or whether this works - I think folks who scored from Dotcom 1 or Dotcom 2 - that is the 3%'ers and up, need not be concerned. They can take out 100-year mortgages and dump the $1.5M into securities and still do well. For most normal people with families and kids who have to toil, it's a different story.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2020
  7. crenca

    crenca Friend

    Friend
    Joined:
    May 26, 2017
    Likes Received:
    1,305
    Dislikes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    Southern New Mexico
    Yet it is the only argument that any one, left, right, center would dare support. Anyone who supports your view will be accused of "trickle down Reaganomics". The right will pilfer you for "not allowing people to make their own decisions", and the left will pilfer you for "supporting systemic racism that denies minorities home ownership". Home ownership (even if it is in reality an indentured servitude) is central to the myth of the "American Dream". Who the hell do you think you are fucking with the American Dream?

    edit: Ha, I said "pilfer" rather than "pummel" :p
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2020
  8. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

    Staff Member Friend BWC
    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2015
    Likes Received:
    68,084
    Dislikes Received:
    112
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Antarctica
    When bottom fell out in in the late 2000s, CA was offering rebates for folks who bought homes. All this did was increase the costs of homes being sold. I remember my wife and I looking at new developments. Their sales people would sales pitch the limited time nature on the rebates. I'm looking at the prices, no doubt artificially pushed up by these rebates and going WTF. FU I'm thinking. Not any different with Tesla cars. Elon lowered, had to lower, the cost of this cars after the solar rebates went away.

    Obviously I would never advocate an immediate change. Shocks to the system are never good. However, a gradual roll-back to a less lengthy period of indentured servitude can be made to work. The problem is that it's like taxes. Once you put them in place, it's impossible to roll them back.

    The reason why college is getting so expensive is because loans are available. Basically supply and demand, and inflation (money supply) principles. Usually the people early in are the winners. Once the curves catch up, what we end up in effect is sort of a parasitic banking system. The banks get a cut of every transaction. And let's not even get into the Mastercard and Visa monopolies.

    Mortgage terms are getting longer with all countries. I believe UK standard is 25, but it's becoming 35 if not already. Taiwan used to be 10 years a while back. Now it's 20 years. Taiwan is a bit odd in that home ownership rate is insanely high at 85%. I think most Taiwanese realize that fiat money is monopoly money (even though the NT has been pretty stable), therefore better to own "real"-estate rather than "virtual"-estate. LIkewise for similar reasons, Mexico home ownership I believe is quite high at 70% (almost 80% just a few years ago). Mortgages in Mexico are between 10-20 years.

    As an aside, Mexico is not as screwed up as our news has us believe - town squares are not getting shot up on a daily basis like Desperado. El Lay is about x5 more shitty than Mexico City and the shitty parts of El Lay are worse than the shitty parts of Mexico City. Most places around the world are undersold. Paris is oversold and highly overrated - better off looking at the picture book in Barnes and Noble (the dog shit or the protest on the street is just outside of the photo frame).
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2020
    Syzygy, Philimon, Psalmanazar and 2 others like this.
  9. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

    Staff Member Friend BWC
    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2015
    Likes Received:
    68,084
    Dislikes Received:
    112
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Antarctica
    Do people that quickly forget that one big reason for the 2000s housing crisis was Maxine Waters, Chris Dodd, Barney Frank, and even the man, GWB himself?. They wanted more Americans to own homes, so they through government, loosened up requirements and regulatory oversight.

    I distinctly remember a State of the Union from GWB with the expanding opportunities for homeowners / American Dream spiel.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2020
    Psalmanazar, Senorx12562 and YMO like this.
  10. YMO

    YMO it's not drinking alone if you're on Zoom

    Friend
    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2018
    Likes Received:
    5,200
    Dislikes Received:
    35
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    DUVALLL-904
    Pollical policies are just like election polling: Never on target.

    So sick of people keeping saying these polls are right because their guy is winning while the other side is using their favorite polls to show that the other guy is going to lose in a few weeks.

    Uggghhhh..... Polls are statistics, it can be used for someone's benefit or have its own bias.
     
    Gazny likes this.
  11. Metro

    Metro Friend

    Friend
    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2016
    Likes Received:
    975
    Dislikes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    San Francisco
    I think many home buyers in the US go into it with little expectation of ever paying off the loan. They view mortgage as a monthly living expense that will never end (like a rent payment). If a refi or longer term means a lower monthly payment, it will appeal to them. What drives this culture is the notion that property values will keep rising.
     
    crenca likes this.
  12. Armaegis

    Armaegis Friend

    Friend BWC
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2015
    Likes Received:
    4,226
    Dislikes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Winnipeg
    I powered through my mortgage and paid it off in ten years because I'm a simpleton and don't like trying to juggle debt vs investing/interest/gains blah blah so I figured just hammer it down then have the money to sort out later. But then my folks got blitzed by a speedster ignoring stop signs so now I'm plunking down money for a new car. Then covid hit and they lost their jobs and at their age it's not like they're going to pick up again, so I'm helping them pay their mortgage too. Now grandma needs to go to a care home and all my other cousins are deadbeats, so hey as the first born of the first born I guess that's on me now. I don't know what point I'm trying to make. Whatever, I don't begrudge any of this. If you can't spent money on family, then what's the point of it.
     
    Syzygy, nishan99, Gazny and 6 others like this.
  13. crenca

    crenca Friend

    Friend
    Joined:
    May 26, 2017
    Likes Received:
    1,305
    Dislikes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    Southern New Mexico
    GWB, McCain, and that whole cohort really were (and are - that's why what's left of them are all flocking to Biden this election) Progressive with a capital P. Spreading democracy (and 30 years) to those who don't want it through the middle east is an inherently progressive idea. Home ownership is just the natural and inevitable march of progress - the inevitability of Hegelian History and bourgeois "liberal values". Voting for Trump is a real middle finger to these so called "conservatives" and well worth it despite all his (mostly personal) drawbacks and I am looking forward to it no matter who wins.
     
    wormcycle and YMO like this.
  14. crenca

    crenca Friend

    Friend
    Joined:
    May 26, 2017
    Likes Received:
    1,305
    Dislikes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    Southern New Mexico
    Bingo. Death, taxes, and a monthly mortgage payment that I can barely afford "it's just part of life" they reason. Besides, real property is "an investment" because values will (or will not - reality is beside the point) rise. The actual numbers be damned...
     
  15. YMO

    YMO it's not drinking alone if you're on Zoom

    Friend
    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2018
    Likes Received:
    5,200
    Dislikes Received:
    35
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    DUVALLL-904
    You already know this, but for me the current President problem is policy (I could care less about his personal habits, he is just a regular mediocre New Yorker, which I'm ok banning people from NY from running for President). :p
     
    Senorx12562 likes this.
  16. Pancakes

    Pancakes Acquaintance

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2020
    Likes Received:
    65
    Dislikes Received:
    10
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Atl
    I want to say that I really appreciate this thread. It's the first and only place I've found where people on opposite sides of the issues make logical arguments based on (mostly) facts and the arguments are based on logic. Everywhere else, everything is based on emotions, memes and, (at best) half truths.

    The one thing I want to add which I haven't seen mentioned is the vilification by the current administration of anyone who doesn't agree with them. Non-Trump supporters are regularly labeled "un-American", "scum", "thugs", "terrorists", etc. The president has also mentioned looking for ways to revoke media privileges for outlets he doesn't like and imprisoning political rivals. If this is what the majority of Americans wants, so be it. Just remember, governments that silence media, jail opponents and, label those who disagree as enemies already exist and we Americans supposedly don't like them. You can find them in such "free" countries as Russia, China, Turkey, most Middle Eastern countries, a bunch of Latin American countries and, plenty of African countries. If you wake up one day wondering how you ended up living in a dictatorship, you voted for it. Flame away.
     
    JK47 dislikes this.
  17. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

    Friend
    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2016
    Likes Received:
    1,088
    Dislikes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    Toronto, ON, Canada
    I think you are mistaken. Has anyone voted for the CEO of eBay, for Mark Zuckerberg, or Jack Dorsey, or CEOs of Uber, Google?
    I guess not. But collectively, and this is not big collective, they can make you invisible on social media, unable to get a ride to airport, and if they stop processing your payments (Paypal) your business is as good as death, and you will be unemployable. And they can do it for any reason whatsoever, and they are doing it to people right now. That's a bit more than the Chinese government can do these days. So I would not worry too much about what your government may or may not do. There are people now, not in government, who have absolute power over your life , no matter in what country you live. You do not have to be nice to Trump, but you'd better be nice to them, you social index is already being computed every day.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2020
    Philimon, obsiCO, squishware and 6 others like this.
  18. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

    Staff Member Friend BWC
    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2015
    Likes Received:
    68,084
    Dislikes Received:
    112
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Antarctica
    ^ a comment on that:

    Last month, those of you who don't have an account, and thus are subject to more ads (top banner, bottom banner, side banner), may have noticed blank spots were the Google ads would usually be placed.

    I was given a notice in my Google Adsense dashboard that the ads were being abused. I may have accidentally clicked on a few ads here and there myself (Google knows this anyway, thus doesn't give me money for it. They tally this up and show me). No specifics or metrics of any kind were given to me in respect to this "abuse". Neither did I have any recourse. Google Adsense doesn't exactly provide me with a e-mail or phone number where I can appeal or find out what is going on when "abuse" occurs. Publishers such as myself are directed to a generic page that vaguely describes possible reasons. BTW, I am not the only one who has run into this. Many other website operators have had the same problem from Google with no recourse.

    I make enough to buy a few beers or have dinner out from the Google ads, so I could care less. However, this indeed would be disturbing for those running websites with much higher volume.

    --

    BTW, this page was also flagged by Google for violating their terms (for being racist or whatever): https://www.superbestaudiofriends.org/index.php?threads/topping-a90-or-topping-part-deux.9583/page-3

    Adsense users get limited appeals (they state that is takes a few days). I appealed once. Waited a few days. Nothing happened. I appealed again. Nothing happened. No even a word back. I then used a third appeal - we are on the third week now. The page was finally taken off Google's "racist / hate speech" list, along with a restoration of "clean" status. Deep down inside, I suspect that the A90 ChiFi thread pissed off some SJW at Google, not understanding the context of that thread, who decided to punish me for the month by taking away ad income from me.

    Here is the scary thing: during that month, I tried using my secondary ad service Sovrn. It didn't help, as Sovrn is really just a Google Ads reseller / curator.

    Monopolies suck.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2020
  19. Pancakes

    Pancakes Acquaintance

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2020
    Likes Received:
    65
    Dislikes Received:
    10
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Atl
    Don't get me wrong, I'm no fan of mega-corps who consider me a product. At all. But being from a communist country originally, there is nothing worse that I can think of than a govt expecting you to tow the party line or "else".

    Mega corps and their influence on our lives are a different (but related) subject. I welcome others' opinions on said subject.
     
  20. ultrabike

    ultrabike Measurbator - Admin

    Staff Member Friend MZR
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2015
    Likes Received:
    9,609
    Dislikes Received:
    19
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Irvine CA
    @Pancakes. It's the same shit with different make up.

    BTW, I'm now in the process of refinancing. LOL!

    Unless things don't go the way they I understand so far, I locked a 2.675% 20 year loan which will shorten the remaining 21 years of my 30 year loan, and will lower my monthly. Amazing how shit works out sometimes!

    EDIT: I know it will front load again. However, the lower monthly is really nice, and will allow me to pay more on the principal. In general, this is not supposed to happen. But the interest rates are record low. I mean, the rates have not been this low since before I was born.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2020
    Claud, edd, Ntbm3 and 2 others like this.

Share This Page