Merv's Politically Incorrect Audio Blog

Discussion in 'SBAF Blogs' started by purr1n, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. YMO

    YMO it's not drinking alone if you're on Zoom

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    You are overthinking about this a little bit I think. The polls aren't wrong that the voter enthusiasm gap is favoring a lot more to Trump. I see this a lot in my backyard, just so many more strong Trump supporters in his base. Question is will he get enough of the middle ground folks to vote for him during this time around (the ones who aren't in his base but voted for him back in 2016). This remains to be seen. As I stated in my FL post previously, Trump can't win if all the GOP voters vote for him because they aren't enough of them. Currently I don't even think people care about the wars ATM when people are losing work and everything in the country is a mess.

    Regardless of who wins/loses: They will be too busy with this Covid-19 crap and as usual Congress will barely do anything but go on TV and say the other side sucks.
     
  2. Elysian

    Elysian Friend

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    I'm glad we aren't seeing the COVID-19 surge that's happening in Asia and Europe in the United States' numbers. No idea if that's due to testing discrepancies, how we've followed the Swedish protocol, or anything else.

    I don't know what it looks like in the rest of the country but I'm seeing a huge resurgence in the economy in the Bay Area. Hiring has picked up a lot, restaurant outdoor dining is consistently packed, and every contractor I've spoken with is backed up for months with work. There's traffic jams on the freeways every day now and the outlet parking lot is full by 11am.

    Maybe this is unique to California and tech driving the economy but I was watching Catherine Wood's September webinar last week (founder of ARK Invest who manage the hottest ETFs right now) and she stated that they're seeing a V-shaped recovery. Aside from Tesla, they've made a lot of really good short/mid-term bets and I think she's incredibly sharp.
    https://ark-invest.com/webinars/
     
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  3. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

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    The difference is that when there is change of the guard in the USA, the transition it peaceful. Doesn't anyone remember McCain's gracious concession speech to Obama?

    I'm sure after Trump loses (or even if he manages to win), there will be some not so pleasant incidents - but for the most part, the transition will be peaceful and people will move on. Like every other change since George Washington. For however much bluster, the dudes with the potbellies who play special forces or D&D in the woods of Michigan aren't going to shoot anyone, at most they will have thoughts at kidnapping politicians, and even then they will be completely incompetent at it.

    This is the difference: peaceful transition. The folks in certain parts of the world will not accept change in a democratic way. Too many tribes, warlords, variations of Islam, etc. I doubt we will ever see peace in the Middle East within the next 500 years. I only imagine things getting worse with climate change, overpopulation, less resources, etc.

    As far as the Palestinian situation, the other Arab states are kind of full-of-shit on this. It's lip service. This is something that most American's don't realize. And if the Arabs weren't so incompetent in going to war against the Israelis, losing not once, but twice, badly, they probably would have annexed those parts of Palestine themselves.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2020
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  4. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

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    With more information (information that we as a nation should have solicited much earlier from countries like Taiwan and South Korea, instead of grown-to-know over time by re-experience and re-analysis) we have a better handle on things.

    We know that social distancing works. We know that masks work. We know if these rules are followed, then buses and airplanes are safe. We know how to treat it better (steroids if inflammation). We know that people with heart conditions, diabetes, and cancer are particularly susceptible. We know to be extremely careful with nursing homes (which have accounted for 40% of deaths).

    The infections rates have been up and down, but we are seeing fewer deaths. We are seeing increases in the boonies states, but their overall numbers are low.

    Personally, I like seeing the state by state approach, where the people of each state can weigh death-risk to freedom for themselves. The orderly Asian side of me is bothered that I see the occasional person in airport security lines without masks though. I'm pretty sure in the countries that have controlled SARSv2 very well, it would have been: no flight for you fucker.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2020
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  5. Elysian

    Elysian Friend

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    Even if it's a close election, I also believe the transition of power will be largely peaceful. Aside from Antifa, wannabe militia special forces, and efforts like https://protecttheresults.com/, I think alt-tech journalists like Tim Pool are exaggerating what's going to happen. People will hyperventilate through Nov and Dec, then we'll be back to worrying about COVID and he economy in Q1. Even though the media doesn't reflect it, I still believe the majority of the country doesn't care about these far-left and far-right causes and want to get on with their lives. The big real estate YouTubers have been putting out a lot of FUD around another mortgage crash but I believe a lot of this is pre-general election clickbait.

    That's an interesting point about the tradition of a peaceful transfer of power in the United States. Maybe it's due to how the economy (directly or indirectly) is the most important thing to most Americans. As long as we have a roof over our heads, cable internet, and streaming services, I don't think the average American cares about much other than the latest Daily Mail/TMZ article making the rounds.

    The Arab royals are completely about the bottom-line and staying in power, not religion or extremist positions. It'll be interesting seeing how positions change as there's more competitive pricing on oil and the Middle Eastern states will be required to prop up a sustainable economy that isn't primarily leveraged upon natural resources.
     
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  6. YMO

    YMO it's not drinking alone if you're on Zoom

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    @Elysian Tim Pool need to exaggerate things (including others in the Right/Left media) in order to continue to gain more viewers, and thus helps his bottle line. My friend really loves Tim Poll and watch all of his videos, and attempt to give him money. Business as usual....
     
  7. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

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    People in the now like to think that we are special. We aren't. Politics has always been ugly. Sometimes uglier, other times less so. As a naturalized citizen and I amazed at how most Americans know nothing of their own history. What's happening now is nothing compared to FDR and the New Deal. People felt so afraid of that "socialist despotic power grab" that a fricking Constitution Amendment was passed to limit the POTUS to two terms. Does anyone know how hard it is to pass an Amendment!

    (George Washington intentionally stepped aside after two-terms to serve as an example. It become an unwritten rule until it was broken by FDR).

    We have enough food, and freedom to call our senators poopyheads. Also, over 200 years of tradition - following good-habits.

    Saudi Arabia will be fucked as they have less and less oil to pump out, and oil becomes less relevant. MBS is making reforms, but they won't come fast enough. People are already hurting because early on Saudi Arabia could afford being a welfare state where every other male kid could get a PhD in religious studies (instead of law, finance, business, engineering, etc.). This is no longer and few know how to wipe their own ass. Expect more unhappy kids willing to blame the USA for all their ills and explode themselves for virgins in paradise.

    I hope we only contain and not get involved in any hot war.

    UAE may be better off. They've already divested from oil, kept their native population low, and only allow guest workers temporary residence.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2020
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  8. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

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    COVID numbers require context.

    In California, the number of people who have died from SARSv2 is a little under 17,000 as of today 10/17/2020. Of this 17,000, 6855 are in Los Angeles County.

    In 2017, the total number of deaths in California from any cause was 268,000. It will be interesting to run analysis a few years later to see how many additional deaths were actually because of SARSv2 (people could have died from the flu, diabetes, heart-attack, or cancer, anyway).

    This is just me, but I think California can relax a bit by now. Maybe just lock down the city of Los Angeles (because people tend to be mindless in that city) and open up the restaurants and movies (with social distancing) everywhere else in CA. A pandemic is a pandemic. Shit is supposed to happen in life. People are supposed to die from shit they never expected. Good public policy never looks at the individual, but at the whole.

    One can make the heart wrenching case about the loving father, mother, grandmother who died. One can also argue about the thousands and thousands of people who lost their businesses, jobs, homes, cars, savings, etc.*

    This is the human condition. We aren't Star Trek United Federation of Planets yet even though we want to be. We're much closer to the ancient Greeks than we think.

    P.S.

    Santa Clara County has had 374 SARSv2 deaths as of 10/17/2020. It's population has been stable around 1.93M for a few years now. Near 12,000 people died from all causes in 2016. Santa Clara Country should be opening movie theaters by now if you ask me.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2020
  9. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

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    That's true but ..
    If Twitter and Facebook and Google are using their monopoly position to simply determine the outcome of the presidential elections, and if they allowed to do that, then do not bother with the elections anymore. Just ask Jack Dorsey and Mark Zuckerberg who should be the next president, and proceed straight to the inauguration ceremony.
     
  10. YMO

    YMO it's not drinking alone if you're on Zoom

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    Twitter and Facebook and Google are considered private companies and thus can do whatever they want on their platform. If they want to ban all the right-wing folks so both platforms can be left-wing bubbles, then it is their right. No one force us to use their platforms, I don't use either one of them. Anyone in politics isn't required to use any Social Media platform to do their jobs.

    Let the right-wing push really hard to change Section 230 so they can go after these Social Media platforms, but they may not like that they are also giving the left-wing the same power to go after the right-wing sites like Breitbart, The Daily Caller, and so much more. Repeal Section 230, and both the left/right will have a field day. They both want to repeal it (just the Dems don't publicly want to admit it).

    Prager U attempted to sue Google/Youtube over them attempting to de-platform their videos. They lost pretty easily.
     
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  11. nishan99

    nishan99 Facebook Friend

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    Yeah some of those conflicts are still present (thanks to the major foreign governments putting their dicks in it) but the governments around the world already made their statements at that time about what they think and what they should do and they already made their actions which some are still present, yeah with time some changed their mind and some withdrawn but still the most interventions are already made when those conflicts were still hot and "everyone must do something about it!".
    Trump would definitely be WAY less restrained just to defend his allies there as he cares about $$ and here we have a plenty of it to insure our and our allies security. War is $$ and Trump will be lusting after it.

    And I didn't deny Trump's conservative foreign policies I just said he well be less so if he was the president during those times where those conflicts just started and were hot AF!.

    Murica not intervening as much will cost her allies or gaining more allies, that's losing military deals and many other deals. Also losing their cultural influence around the world because fucking China and Russians (or any country honestly) will not mind their own business because allies ARE businesses, Murica know that and they're doing it since WW1. Mind your own business and others will gain more diplomatic, financial and cultural power then your dick will be suddenly small.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2020
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  12. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    I saw an analysis the other day that nationally the excess mortality for this year will probably be just under 20%. Even with the caveats (e.g. poor health care because of lockdowns, etc.), the vast majority of that will be due to SARSv2
     
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  13. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

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    How? Daily Caller, Breitbart, Washington Post, CNN, NYT are not covered by 230, they are responsible for the content they are publishing, that why CNN or Washington Post or both had top pay the settlement to the Covington kid.
     
  14. YMO

    YMO it's not drinking alone if you're on Zoom

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    I don't like the Verge, but they did a good job here: www.theverge.com/platform/amp/21273768/section-230-explained-internet-speech-law-definition-guide-free-moderation

    It goes much further than just social platforms. Even user comments can get a site in hot water if Section 230 is repealed for example. Forums also protected under Section 230.
     
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  15. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

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    We don't know what Trump would do or not do in any hypothetical situation. As far as allies, we are treaty or law bound to defend some allies. If there was an attack on NATO, I would probably bet that Trump would weasel out instead of getting involved. Time and time again, despite his verbal bluster, he's intervened far less that I thought he would.

    If you are worried about money corrupting us into wars, I'd worry more about the Carlyle Group, the establishment hawks, and the Hillary Clinton Foundation.

    Trump's foreign policy in terms of war or no war isn't conservative. There Republican (and Democratic) hawks who want us to get involved anywhere and everywhere such as Bolton. Trump didn't want anything more to do with Afghanistan. Bolton wanted the other way. Bolton lost.

    The idea of getting us out of these wars came from Bannon (as with Trump platform), who got it from the time before GWB invented the concept of pre-emptive war. From after Vietnam to GWB (Nixon to Clinton), the USA's policy was containment. Do just enough to keep the bad guys away, but don't get entangled. This is probably the reason why Clinton waited so long to do anything about the mess in the former Yugoslav states.

    Pulling out of endless wars is not the same thing as not intervening (that is not getting entangled). Freedom of navigation patrols are being conducted in the South China Sea to make a bold statement to China. We are conducting military exercises with our allies in the Pacific. We are getting India on board, cooperating with them on F16 production (India was once closer to the Soviet sphere of influence). We are selling more advanced weapons to our partners so they can defend themselves. I've been seeing more of a shift toward the IndoPacific in the past four years.

    Obama, on the other hand, wouldn't even sell F16s to Taiwan because he was afraid of China. We suck in the IndoPacific (was Asia Pacific) because the Obama and Biden surrender monkeys only talked about "pivot", but didn't do jack shit in order appease China.

    I see no loss of allies with us getting us out of civil wars Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq. All of our European allies have already gotten the fuck outta there. Maybe the Saudis might be ticked that we won't help them invade Yemen, but fuck that shit after seeing the messes in that area. I am sure our friends in NATO wouldn't hold it against us.

    However, I do agree that histrionics to pull out of NATO or asking our NATO partners to stick with their military commitments will piss off our allies in NATO such as Germany, who continue to be cheapskates. The fact is, the USA is in debt. We can't keep paying for other countries' defense, especially if they are already rich countries who can do it on their own. Friends aren't friends if they keep insisting that you keep paying for their french fries and milkshake.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020 at 9:18 AM
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  16. Darkstar1

    Darkstar1 Rando

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    This is a crazy list.

    American "intervention" in Iraq (Iraqi Civil War / against ISIS): 2014 - present

    Are we pretending that this had nothing to do with the Iraq war started by Bush? Second Obama was criticized by the right and Trump for not going in with more troops. Even though the strategy worked and Trump basically kept the same strategy and let ISIS collapse on itself with US pressure and coordination. Then we have Trump taking credit for destroying ISIS.

    SO its on Obama list but currently going on under Trump. Trump takes credit for it but its not on Trumps list. Weird.

    Later its said that every US president can go their own way. Correct so every intervention that Trump didn't get out immediately belongs on his list as well.


     
  17. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

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    Absolutely not. I've mentioned GWB many times - how he deviated from our prior policy of containment to entanglement. Or how he was dumb in thinking that democracy can work in those areas. The US was high (drug pun intended) in that post Soviet collapse era, thinking we could export democracy and make the world a better place.

    Also, let's not forget almost the entire Congress including Democrats were behind this plan of invading Iraq and removing Saddam.

    Does everything need to be in bold? It's hard to read.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020 at 9:36 AM
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  18. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

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    This is no different from GWB exclaiming "Mission Accomplished".

    ISIS is not destroyed. They will come back. Mark my words. We just don't know when. It could be five years. It could be another twenty. Too much strife between Sunnis and Shiites in that Iraq / Syria region. I just hope that when they come back, we do not get involved. They as a people need to sort this out for themselves, even if this is the result:

    https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/The_Alternative_Factor_(episode)
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020 at 9:32 AM
  19. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

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    It absolutely does if Trump started a hot or warm war, or escalated one. Except unlike Obama or GWB before him, he didn't.

    Sorry for the multiple relies. The bold blinded my eyes.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020 at 10:06 AM
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  20. YMO

    YMO it's not drinking alone if you're on Zoom

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