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Merv's Politically Incorrect Audio Blog

Discussion in 'SBAF Blogs' started by purr1n, Dec 26, 2018.

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  1. Senorx12562

    Senorx12562 Case of the mondays

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    You must know a completely different type of conspiracy theorist than I do, as I have always found all of them to be distinctly lacking in critical thinking. And anyone stupid enough to decide to allow their vote to be "skewed" by what they do or do not see on youtube (or bitchute, for that matter)? Well, that kind of speaks for itself.
     
    Senorx12562, Oct 24, 2020
    #1401
  2. Metro

    Metro Friend

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    Class action lawsuit :punk:. Just came across this while tossing out old mail.

    20201024_145957.jpg
     
    Metro, Oct 24, 2020
    #1402
  3. Phantaminum

    Phantaminum Friend

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    Isn’t insane that they have all of our information that affects what we can purchase at what rate and have to jump through hoops to get certain records removed (with proof), then to have them say, “Oops our bad” and didn’t want to life a finger until it blew up.
     
    Phantaminum, Oct 24, 2020
    #1403
  4. YMO

    YMO John Bomber

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    I was doing errands today and taking crap out to the trash dumpster in my apartment complex. When I opened the door, I saw this:

    [​IMG]



    Dunno why it was in there. Looks like the "legs" might be broken. Dunno if it is actually became useless or someone was stealing them due to being "triggered."

    We will never know.....
     
    YMO, Oct 24, 2020
    #1404
  5. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    Most likely someone was stealing them. At the corner of my neighborhood and the first main cross street there are a dozen (or more) political signs. All of them have been there for a while, except the Trump 2020 sign that keeps being removed and then refreshed a few days later, then removed again...
     
    crenca, Oct 24, 2020
    #1405
  6. YMO

    YMO John Bomber

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    I'm thinking the same, but my trash dumpster. Bleh.......
     
    YMO, Oct 24, 2020
    #1406
  7. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    CREDIT AGENCIES GET AWAY WITH MURDER - ALMOST

    So anyway, this is sort of a mini-follow-up to the Mortgage Crisis article I wrote a while back. Per my usual style, I am going to start with some background, and then get to the point on why this Experian shit happened.

    Smaller community banks need to outsource services to third-parties because they do not have the resources of big banks. Examples of such are core processing (the bank's computer system that handles all the accounts), Internet banking, and bill payment. The big banks such as Chase or Citibank have a shitload of money to build, maintain, and upgrade these systems. The small banks do not, so they usually outsource this stuff to third-parties. For example, Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) is one such provider. Intuit used to be a provider of bill payment services and probably still is.

    Some regional (still small by big bank standards) were insane enough to run their own core processing systems. One based near Sacramento ran an old NCR mainframe into the ground, maintaining a stash of spare parts. Another small bank in Oregon also ran their own core processing mainframe, requiring a small army to so. That's Oregon though. Oregon is weird - you can't pump your own gas in Oregon by law. Some random Porker who looks like Goober from the Andy Griffith Show has to do it for it for you. It's part of Oregon's communistic philosophy that everyone deserves a job. So basically if you live in Oregon, you will probably have a job, but a shitty one. The result of this is if you smart and capable, you will never advance. It's very much a patronistic system they have there - with the plebs are given a ton of wiggle room to protest. Ever wonder why so many white young people in Portland are so angry burning down shit on behalf of indigenous people or people of color like myself? It's because they have no hope with their shitty service jobs.

    Anyway back on topic. The thing about using third parties is that the Federal regulators didn't want banks (small or large), to absolve themselves from all responsibility by simply throwing things over the fence to someone else. Banks were still responsible for doing due diligence and ongoing monitoring of third-parties who handled or processed their customers' information. This from a security and reliability (including financial solvency) point of view. Makes total sense.

    Contractual provisions with these third-parties would have to include provisions on keeping customer data safe, notifying the bank if there was a breach, assuring certain levels of uptime, etc. The banks would themselves have to perform security audits and inspections, ask the third-parties to fill in questionnaires, or obtain and review independent audit reports attesting to that these third-parties were kosher. Over time, it de facto ended up as the later because these third-party service providers would have thousands of customers asking them for the same thing over and over. It was just easier for these third-party providers to hire accounting firms like Arthur Anderson or KPMG - you know with men of honor who looked and talked like Jimmy Stewart - to perform a SSAE16 (was SAS70) audit to show that their security controls worked to protect the banks' customer information. (These audits were structured to always be a kind a joke, but that's another story for another time.)

    Now we would think that in the interests of efficiency, the Federal regulators would keep a registry of kosher service providers. While the Federal regulators, by the powers given to them, would also perform audits of these third-party providers, the last thing they wanted to do was to attest whether a provider was kosher or not. Too many political issues here - say if a service provider failed an audit, or if a service provider passed, but ended up leaking a ton of customer information (shit happens). No matter what, vendor management, as it was called, was left to each and every bank. It was pretty much the same process for every bank. An Excel spreadsheet with a list of service providers, risk ratings (with some methodology), and a vendor management folder for each high risk service provider (filled with SSAE16 reports that no one bothered reading, financial statements, contracts, BCP, etc.)

    So what does any of this have anything to do with any of the major consumer credit agencies (Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax)?

    Well, if we think about it, those credit agencies are third-party service providers of banks, including the big ones to-big-to-fail too. Wells Fargo and Bank of America aren't in the business of keeping consumer credit records. Even if they were, it would be too monopolistic for them to have this role.

    Well, what about vendor management, that is due diligence and ongoing monitor of these service providers? This was a great question that a noob auditor we just hired would often ask. Well guess what: those credit agencies, Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax, were effectively exempt.

    Banker: I have a question, do we need to do vendor management of the credit agencies? They don't seem to want to give us anything. They won't let us audit. The contract provisions for security are weaksauce and they won't bend on them.

    Auditor: Oh, don't worry. Credit agencies are exempt for due diligence and ongoing monitor. Don't worry, I think the regulators have a handle on them. The regulators won't ding you if you skip the credit agencies.

    --

    Yeah, that's the power of special interests plus regulatory bureaucracy for ya. The credit agencies answer to no one but themselves, and they have more just as much data on as Google or Facebook, just the other kind, your financial data. To this day, how effectively the credit agencies protect your persona financial information remains a black hole.

    This is the story of part my life and why I have so little faith in government
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2020
    purr1n, Oct 24, 2020
    #1407
  8. Elysian

    Elysian Friend

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    @YMO: I think you might get a kick out of this given how closely you've been observing FL voting.
    https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    The proposed methodology is pretty interesting and is similar to how I've been constructing my own mental model on how Democrats and GOP are likely game theorying the general election. I suspect most pollsters have it wrong again and that the people actually working in the Biden and Trump campaigns have a more accurate view of how things are unfolding.
    https://joeisdone.github.io/

    I hope the author does the same for PA. It would be interesting to see the same toggleable views.
     
    Elysian, Oct 28, 2020
    #1408
  9. YMO

    YMO John Bomber

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    Thanks for the link, but I prefer not reading a site that is bias on a result (I got bored of the cringe text on the main site). Even without reading this data, I am still pretty convinced that Trump has an edge (a minor one) in FL. The one thing that none of these sites will not get right are so many crossover voters each side gets + Independent votes. Since FL is closed primary state, you have voters who are liberal but registered as Republican so they can pick their preference in the primary races but normally vote down ticket Dem in the General Election. Same is true in reverse.

    People spend millions of dollars and hours trying to figure out FL. No data site/pollster will really get it right. On the few things they do get right however, Miami-Dale county Dem turnout isn't doing too hot with the GOP turnout in this area. If Dems prefer poorly on their turnout in Miami-Dale then Biden doesn't have a shot in getting the 29 FL EC votes.
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2020
    YMO, Oct 28, 2020
    #1409
  10. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Polling can be done in so many different ways, telephone, online, opt-in, offline recruiting. Internet and social media only skews things. Most of the people who voted for Trump in 2016 were the silent ones, the type not to bother with Facebook, Twitter, or even pick up their cell phone from a stranger.

    We figure the pollsters would have or should have known, but polling is like everything else today, it's politicized one way or another.
     
    purr1n, Oct 28, 2020
    #1410
  11. Elysian

    Elysian Friend

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    The website URL was probably chosen to needle some people and I'm surprised GitHub hasn't taken it down yet, but ignoring the write-ups, I think it's interesting seeing the actual data rather than RCP polling agency aggregates or CNN/NYT projected electoral college maps.

    I don't have data to back it up but per @purr1n's point, I also feel like there's a lot of shy Trump voters out there. Nate Silver was ripping on Trafalgar over Twitter but I don't think anyone has figured out how to get it quite right since 2016.

    Anyway, I think it's pretty neat that this sort of data is now publicly available for anyone to run analytics against. I'm assuming this is what most people are building their visualizations off of. I'm starting to see people share interesting perspectives on the EV data and individual citizens (academics and non-academics) are doing a much more insightful job on parsing the numbers and implications than mainstream outlets.
    https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
     
    Elysian, Oct 28, 2020
    #1411
  12. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

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    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/...ule=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage#commentsContainer

    If that is appearing in NYT, that means even those folks are hedging. Not trusting the polls? They do not want to look like complete morons again in case if Trump wins.
     
    wormcycle, Oct 28, 2020
    #1412
  13. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Yeah. Everyone including Trump thought Hillary had it in the bag in 2016. Until oh-shit after oh-shit when the Rust Belt states reported in.

    Poll numbers used for politics, to discourage those supporting a projected loser not to go vote, can also work the other way: making the projected winner overconfident and taking things for granted.

    The press loves to talk about voter suppression or disenfranchisement. Polls are just a more subtle means of doing this.

    As far as polls screwing up, they screwed up in FL for 2000 too. Or something about chads.
     
    purr1n, Oct 28, 2020
    #1413
  14. YMO

    YMO John Bomber

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    I think the data on that site is fine, but I get bored with the cringy-worthy wording. Also, as you provided our state show this information and also gives a great breakdown by county. As I stated before thou, just because the GOP is getting more of their voters to vote it doesn't mean everyone of them is voting Trump. The same is true on the Dem side as well.

    From my perspective in FL, there's both shy Trump and shy Biden voters. No one talks about the shy Biden voters because things are so partisan in FL that you can lose friendships based on who you are voting for. I know some shy Biden voters.

    The thing in the end of the day about FL is all about turnout. GOP voters vote more than Dems after all the votes are counted? Great, but how many of them voted for Trump and how many Independents/NPAs voted for Trump also (the real wild card in FL)? We will know more on E Day at night time.

    Trafalgar I have love/hate relationship with them. Love them since they were spot on with the shy Trump voter. Hate them since their polling oversample too much white voters who own homes. After 2016 it was confirmed Trafalgar use IVR on landlands to people's homes in the congressional districts to see how they will vote. The issue is the landlands, because the joke is if you still have a landland in FL you are most likely older, most likely white, and own you home. That's normally the stereotypical GOP trifecta here in FL. I was disappointed with Trafalgar in the 2018 FL elections since they were being too generous with the GOP voters. I also wish they were upfront that all their polling has Margin of Error of about 3% (but they normally hide this fact when they post the polls on Twitter, you actually need to go to their site and read the data). In 2018 they gave +2 to GOP for FL Senate race, and +3 to GOP for FL Gov race. After the election Rick Scott won the Senate race with 0.1% while Ron Desantis won the Gov race with 0.4% percent. They were partying that they got the race right, but I was like you nerds keep oversampling too many white folks with your polling (in 2018 white voters lost total voting share, but Trafalgar was too generous with the numbers).

    It also doesn't help that Trafalgar is getting financial $$ from Restoration PAC as an attempt to shore up Trump support. Robert Cahaly who runs Trafalgar is very bias on who he wants to win next week.

    With all these issues I have with Trafalgar (not the C- 538 memes), I don't count out their viewpoint. The reason why I say that is that I think Trafalgar does a good job on what should be close races that can go either way. I do agree that the MI Races (including the Senate one) is much closer than people think it is. Same for the other races as well. But as @purr1n stated earlier, Polling is political and it is a $$$$$ business. Remember statistics? Well Statistics can be used to sell lies to people.

    Edit: @Elysian should find paradise in FL. He can become one of us and be Florida Maaaann.

    Edit 2: Oooo Ooo Oooo Florida Man strikes again! https://www.politico.com/states/flo...altering-governors-voter-registration-1331838
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2020
    YMO, Oct 28, 2020
    #1414
  15. rhythmdevils

    rhythmdevils MOT: rhythmdevils audio

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    [​IMG]
     
    rhythmdevils, Oct 31, 2020
    #1415
  16. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    CALIFORNIA PROPOSITION 15 - THE BEGINNING OF THE END

    Well, it looks like there is a good chance that Prop 15 may pass. What is CA Prop 15? Well back in ancient CA times, the voters decided that they didn't want their property taxes to go completely insane-o, which they would have because CA property asset values have exploded in the past 50 years. Prop 13 was passed in 1978 which capped annual property tax increases to 2% at most regardless of the assessed value of the property. The idea was to be compassionate to older folks who lived on fixed retirement incomes and also taxpayers in general. As with all things, there are downsides, but that's another discussion. Prop 15 seeks to undo Prop 13, but for only commercial properties.

    The idea behind Prop 15 isn't necessarily bad. However, its implementation is bad because there are no provisions for the taxes being phased in over time to cushion its effects. Many commercial properties have not been assessed in decades, thus a reassessment could very likely result in a massive sticker shock to property owners.

    On the face of it, it doesn't seem so bad. Very few people own commercial property. It doesn't affect homeowners or anyone we know, so who cares? Let's just tax the f**k outta property owners because they are all like Westfield and rich and evil like Mr. Potter from It's a Wonderful Life. Except the problem is that the lessees of these properties are the likes of your local GameStop (my kids and I are sad so many of them closed recently), folks like my wife's friend - a small-time Hollywood producer who rents small office space, the Indo-Paki hole in the wall joint that makes dishes like paya and haleem, and US manufacturing companies like Schiit. I doubt old Mr. Potter will absorb the costs himself out of generosity, but rather pass the costs on the lessees.

    Californians, taking this flat earth approach (only being aware of what can be immediately seen), are being really dumb about this. With the SARS2 outbreak and so many brick and mortar stores being shuttered, not to mention the new normal where most shopping will be online via Amazon and employees will be working from home, Prop 15 seems absolutely asinine. This isn't the right time.

    As if there weren't enough empty buildings at the local strip (and Westfield) malls and office complexes. Expect there to be more. California will look more and more like a third-world country, or at least the city in that Charleton Heston flick Omegaman. Some parts already do. Instead of allowing businesses and companies to grow and expand in the state (thus increasing tax revenue), Californians seem to want to punish successful businesses and force them out to Texas, Idaho, Utah, etc.

    Oh, and Prop 13 will be next for homeowners. Mark my words. Once the state of California gets a taste of blood, it will want more.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2020
    purr1n, Oct 31, 2020
    #1416
  17. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    @rhythmdevils, I am glad to see you are not part of the "Pluto is not a planet" cabel. What's your favorite planet? Mine' is the sun...
     
    crenca, Oct 31, 2020
    #1417
  18. rhythmdevils

    rhythmdevils MOT: rhythmdevils audio

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    Europa! Though it’s a moon I guess. I have to go with the boring answer of earth. So much diversity.
     
    rhythmdevils, Nov 1, 2020
    #1418
  19. rhythmdevils

    rhythmdevils MOT: rhythmdevils audio

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    I just read this op-ed predicting a Trump win and repeat of the 2016 elections due to similar dynamics.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opini...lls-expect-election-day-be-repeat-ncna1245282

    scares the hell out of me and also makes me angry at both the American people and the Democratic party and liberals across the country.

    the fact that this election is even close is such a sad statement to the state of politics in America today and the mindset of the American people. Brainwashed and stupid.

    people all across America love trump for no other reason than the feeling he elicits in them. And things he says he’ll do or has done regardless of how false the statements are.

    and I also feel angry at Liberals and Democrats for again electing a candidate who is very difficult to like and is boring as hell. Biden is running a campaign strategy of just not being Trump rather than standing for something. With a strong character like Trump who makes bold statements and has a strong presence and image, this just doesn’t work. Instead of electing a candidate that the left wing and more would vote for, we have a candidate who people are voting for simply to get rid of Trump. This strategy is so distasteful and cynical. Makes me sick.

    and I also blame Bernie for the tightness of this race for deciding to run such an angry campaign. He was the front runner at first but his angry style turned people off and they went with the safety of Biden. But Bernie of 2016 would have won the primaries and I believe would have a much better chance of beating Trump. You gotta fight a strong character with another strong character. Bernie’s ideas are wildly popular among the public and would really energize voters to vote for him not just against Trump. Yes, Trump would go crazy with the bullshit socialist accusations but I believe Americans would see through it.

    it’s just so depressing to see what’s happening in this country right now. So much division. And people don’t just have different opinions anymore they also have their own set of facts. You can find “facts” for anything on the internet these days. Debating a Trump supporter is impossible because they site all kinds of bogus facts and so discussion can’t go anywhere.

    I wish we could have open debates about the best way to solve our real problems.
     
    rhythmdevils, Nov 1, 2020
    #1419
  20. YMO

    YMO John Bomber

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    Keep in mind Keith Koffler is one of the higher up guys at the Washington Examiner. He has a bias for anything GOP/Trump. However, he could still be right this week.

    Brainwashed goes both ways.

    Like all of our previous presidents?

    Bernie would never win the Sun Belt states in the Primaries. In FL being anything close to a Socialist is a huge death sentence. I'm not shocked that voters in the FL DM Primary voted 40% more over Biden than Bernie.

    Here's a warning: If the National Dem Party is going to go more leftward, they should forget winning FL in future elections since in FL there's a major hate against anything Big Government/Socialism. I met plenty of Asians/Brazilians/Cubans/other First Gen Immigrants who are very happy that they are voting for Trump again in 2020. States like FL in reality is more social liberal but uber fiscal conservatives.

    As a reminder voters prefer to vote Biden over Sanders in the primary. If for example Berine would had won the Primaries and he would be on the Dem ticket for President, I have a hard time believing that he would win since I do not believe the Sun Belt states except for CA would swing for him. The Biden wining over Sanders by 40% in the FL Primaries is a warning sign for Dems: Run someone who is too hard left and they will get a beating. FL in certain parts wants pretty strong conservatives, that's how it is. We even get former modern liberals from CA/IL/NY who start voting for the GOP after they see their pay checks.

    Oh yeah, both sides sucks IMO. Those on the right will never admit that their Medicare/Social Security programs are illegal Socialist programs (when their supporters are heavily into these programs) while those on the left will never admit that their big government programs will bankrupt the country.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2020
    YMO, Nov 1, 2020
    #1420
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