Merv's Politically Incorrect Audio Blog

The PPP/PSP "loan" system is the core of the governments economic response to Covid on the business side - it's the mechanism of "stimulus" for business. Going from memory (someone can confirm/deny) it is larger in total trillions than the individual side by several times. You don't want to know what my small business got out of it, I will just say you W-2 peons got screwed...

 

Previous administration but I have not heard of any improvements for the new package on the target of the loans but I could be wrong.

 

I really feel for all America’s children at this moment.

now that Trump has scurried away to Florida who is gong to protect them from the canibalistic Democrats???

 

I think this note from WHO, and related information, confirming WHO note, from CDC deserves your attention https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05.
The note, and the related CDC information, is basically saying:

1. That by increasing the cycle threshold of the standard PCR test, any traces of COVID-19 virus, even dormant (after recovery), or residual (cannot cause illness) can be interpreted as a positive COVID test. That applies to live and post mortem tests. See at the end of this post what PCR CT is.
2. That (WHO note) PCR test should not be used! and was not intended as a primary COVOD-19 diagnostic tool!

That simplifies greatly what we know about CV and what we do not:

1. We know it present in our lives that makes some people, probably great many people sick
2. We know that people die from it.
3. What does not male sense anymore is to use any numbers rendered by PCR tests, related to the number of cases, or post mortem testing, as a basis of any factual discussion, modeling, or public policy. At least to without authorities engaging in a meaningful analysis of the existing data, and related medical information. Which by the way is WHO opinion how the PCR test can be used.

Until that happens we only have politics, fear ,or denial, but no basis for any factual understanding of CV spread or mortality rate. What is unfortunate that from now on the scourge of modern times "your narrative is as good my narrative" takes over.

This information was available long time ago, I was told about it first time few months ago, but, first I did not fully understand the technicalities (what is cycle threshold for example), and I simply refused to believe in implications.
Even NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html was smarter than me .
No I do.
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Below is the CDC explanation in https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/faqs.html:
"To improve the test’s ability to detect virus, an RT-PCR test creates many copies of the same genetic material from the virus in a process called amplification. The cycle threshold (Ct value) is the point at which a reaction reaches a fluorescent intensity above background levels. The Ct value indicates when the nucleic acid target is detectable in the amplification process. There is a correlation between the Ct value and the amount of viral genetic material that was present in the specimen."

 

Speaking of narratives, you just presented one popular in right wing conspiratorial circles. The use and abuse of PCR tests in relation to this pandemic is something this narrative zeros in on, blows up out of proportion, and then hinges an assertion of "we don't know" around who has the virus and who has died from it - it all must just be a big misunderstanding on the part of the medical community and public policy...except it's not a misunderstanding but rather a conspiracy to prop up Big Pharm, Big Gov, etc. Perhaps 15-20% excess mortality is just what it is, and we should all just go about our "normal" lives as if the Covid pandemic never existed.

ASR-LUE's grasp of the technical details and overall implications of PCR, testing, and the relationship to public policy and the current mortality is "eccentric" to say the least. In fact it is down right misleading. "Normal", mostly defined economically, is a chimera even in "normal" times, but it is one some cling on for dear life...

 

I think reading the WHO note and links in it would be a good start, but on the other hand, why bother?

 

First of all, your link to the WHO note is messed up
Here it is:
https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

This doesn’t say anything that health care professionals don’t already know.
This states the Positive Predictive Value goes down as prevalence of disease in your population goes down.

Please read and understand this first
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_and_negative_predictive_values

The other thing the WHO link states is for health care professionals to be careful with weakly positive results that have low clinical suspicion.

This doesn’t say anything about testing being a problem.

Edit: The above is true of all diagnostic tests

The problem is that COVID-19 is asymptomatic in many people. Therefore there is no clinical suspicion in many people who are tested. So what do you do with this population with a weakly positive test result? Most likely they should be retested in a couple days. The only downside is they are asked to self-isolate and wear a mask. Big deal.

Am I missing something?

 

<sarcasm> Your missing how testing in relation to clinical practice actually works does not fit into the simplistic right wing PCR conspiracy narrative </sarcasm>

 

I am sure there is nothing in this note that the clinical staff conducting tests do not know, actually in the hospital my wife is working for there a lot of scrutiny at least recently, and significant retesting is actually being done.
Only two problems:

1. It is just that in some places, Ontario, for example ,and that know for sure, the cycle threshold is 35-40, which increases significantly the chance of false positives.
2. And the politicians do not wait for any second tests, they have no doubts, they announce and hype up the numbers as they come.
3. And if we for a moment think that the restrictions, or removing restrictions at the political level is based on any numbers, California magically recovered today.

 

I genuinely feel bad for these people. Last week I had a patient with Covid tell me that he regrets not wearing a mask and spreading conspiracy theories about it. This was only an hour before I intubated him. I found out that he died over the weekend.
Believe whatever you want but this is a real disease with real consequences.

 

What you are saying matters to public health experts. They need to make decisions on data that have consequences for everyone. However, look at it from their perspective, if you err the other way and shit gets out of control then hospitalizations go way up and more people die. I would rather err on the side of pissing people like you off. California is a HUGE state and they were overrun a couple of weeks ago. People got pissed they can’t go out to eat and they started a petition to recall the governor. He is a politician and backed off, what’s new?

 

Conspiracy theorist about what? The reality of COVID has nothing to do with the fact that the actions of governments are informed, rational, or justified. Those are different things.
I can die of of COVID a week from now, at my age it is not distant possibility, particularly with the exposure caused by two members of my close family working in healthcare and going to work without missing a day since March. I can die of a number of other causes, which is actually way more likely. And what does it have to do with masks? I wear mask wherever I go, for the protection and comfort of other people.
I am not pissed off, I am retired and, at least for now, pretty comfortable. That does not mean I do not see what is happening around me, and that I do not need a good explanation for the quarantine of the healthy.
Reality of COVID danger does not means that I am going to shit my pants 24/7. believing everything that people who have been wrong about everything so far tell me without scrutinizing it. Particularly when I see lives around me ruined not by COVID.

 

At my local Libertarians Meeting next month we are hosting this guy:

http://www.frenchcapitalmanagement.com/

Yes, he does wealth management and stuff like that. But he did sued Jacksonville with help of a State Rep to overturn the mask order in Jacksonville a few months back.

As much as people to shake their heads, he does have a point. The city per state law didn't have the authority to do a mask order in Jax. However, it is ok to shake your head again because he is a financial adviser and believes the mask orders and limited people at the time hurts his business.

I should attend this meeting next month, here's what my local Libertarian group stated on the meeting with the zinger at the end:

"You may recognize Jason as the business owner who filed a lawsuit against the City of Jacksonville with Rep. Anthony Sabatini last year.

Jason will speak about his experience, additional thoughts on mask mandates and answer questions. Jason is a Navy veteran having served two tours in Operation Enduring Freedom, is a UNF MBA graduate, owns French Capital Management--an investment advisory money management firm--and enjoys surfing.

We understand the issue of masks is touchy. The right to private property is a core value for libertarians, and we will honor the request from Leci's to adhere to current mandates. Please have yours on hand to wear as appropriate."



Most likely what this guy will say it is the right of a business to do a mask order, but he doesn't believe a business should have the right to be forced to do a mask order.

 

I understand your perspective now. I think you are following a false logic that many people also do.

If my leaders, scientists, authorities are the experts and then they are not perfect or correct 100% of the time then I no longer trust anything they say. Similar to when young adults realize their parents are just regular people and not perfect deities.

First of all, no one is an expert on a new or novel coronavirus. People aren’t perfect and even if they claim they know everything they are full of shit. Right now, no one can fully explain why Covid-19 is dwindling in India.

I think it all boils down to is do you (or anyone) else trust their government to act in their best interests. Public health is not glamorous and usually not very elegant in its implementation. You’re correct to be skeptical but be careful about becoming cynical and thinking there is some nefarious plot being hatched in secret basement labs.

As far as the reality of COVID-19, I don’t think anyone knows how this is going to go with all of these new variants coming to light. This virus clearly mutates faster than we bargained for. I tend to be very pessimistic about this virus and hope I’m wrong.