The Coronavirus Thread

Here is my nightmare scenario. Trump silences Fauci, next week proclaims forthcoming Easter miracle and orders the country to get back to work.

Meanwhile tests start to reveal the huge blanket of infection, cases skyrocket, pockets of healthcare overload but hey the flu kills lots of people. But in the next 6 months 180mil could be infected. And close to 2 mil dead. Let's see the flu do that in 6 months.

And then there is DeSantis working on some population control for Florida.

 

The only source I found that publishes daily readable and reliable national reports (English versions available) with brief analysis of trends and data is Koch institute in Germany. It is so dramatically different from the Italian numbers that almost difficult to believe those two countries are dealing with the same virus.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html

But there is twist: I read that In Italy every case of death, even if a person did not have CV symptoms but the post mortem test was positive, is attributed to Coronavirus. Germans do a lot of random testing but they do not do post mortem tests if there were no symptoms.

 

Too true. I've run across two personal accounts on Twitter that I've found illuminating:

1. A doctor in Spain with COVID tweeted a diary of his progress through the disease. Daily summary of symptoms easily understood by lay people along with some more detailed info for medical professionals, including daily pictures of his lungs. He's on Day 16.
https://twitter.com/yaletung

2. Just a guy from NYC, mid 40s, who's husband had one of those "mild flu" cases while his progressed to hospitalization.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/LatsCovid19Journal?src=hashtag_click

(Apologies in advance for Twitter's user-hostile reading experience. Much better in Tweetbot app.)

 

I really do hope my nightmare is so wrong!

 

I vote for suspending/returning loaners. Not worth the risk despite good will the risk is always there.

 

Just food for thought. I worked night shift on Sunday. At around 22 i got a Thorax X-ray requisition, in actually should've been a CT-Scan but the patient, with a history of different conditions (pacemaker, small stroke, heart attack, removal of part of the intestine), was too unstable so we decided to do it in UCI. Among the different things we had to call, as much as an Xray can provide, there was "Covid positive?". Now keep in mind that, obviously xray would answer most of the things but regarding Lungs and Heart could provide some answers, or guide us at least.

When i was there just before taking my first image, and because of the systematic violent coughing, the patient suffered another heart attack and flat lined. After reanimation tries we ended up clocking the time of death.

This patient was in the 50's. I only then started to think that there's so many people at risk that are so much younger than the ages we are currently, and naturally, talking about (70s+).
The image of the family, specially the young ones was heart breaking. I know this happens, every single day, but this was frustrating.

Don't take this whole situation lightly, please just don't.

 

Trump seems to be hoping to have us opening back up by Easter. He want the churches packed for Easter services. Back to making flu comparisons again, too. He makes some good calls, and some really questionable takes.

As much as I think the quarantines are not the *best* compromise, I have a feeling most medical experts would question that idea heavily.

My dad thinks Trump saying stuff with a few of his championed people behind him is the same as or better than many others making predictions that it will take longer than that. But then, Trump himself seems to be jumping to conclusions in absence of actual data. He thinks that because the death rate hasn't been up to projected worst-case, that we can deal with it really, really fast and get on with life.

Wouldn't that be nice. Funnily enough, his own task force coordinator is only saying to stick with the guidelines and that we need lost more data on a very granular level. I trust that a little more lol. We still have a ways to go with testing and figuring out what really goes on. I'm not much for Trump's boasting about the best this and that.

According to pops, you can't take people's hopes away. I'm just doom and gloom for saying that given everything that's happened, it is laughable to hear that from our president. I just think false hopes don't really help anyone. I think it would be a true miracle to have places *really* opening up by Easter. And I think people deserve to hear about what they're really in for, not some vague feel-good stuff and stringing together things happening elsewhere.

Most of what seems to come through the news on TV is pretty much same old, every day. I don't watch much news on TV so I forget what it's like. And then I get on the phone with my dad and see the mindset at work. He trusts everything that's being said implicitly... when it favors him to, anyway. If he doesn't like it, it can't be true. If it's what he wants to believe, it must be.

I'm neither for nor against Trump fwiw. I call a spade a spade and that's about it. If he does good, I say so. If he's drifting off, I note that. Right now I think he's getting a little out of touch. I mean, we'll see. Easter sounds crazy to me.

A lot of the advice he's given for what to do has actually been good. I appreciate that aspect of what he says. But I'm fairly certain if some of his own experts had their way, the sanctions would have surpassed the 15th.

I would think that your average person already assumes that's out the window at this point in the progression of things. I think a lot of things need to happen before we're even at a point to be making those distinctions. It'd be one thing if the data was there...

I dunno... maybe I just don't like things. I really don't get why he would put a day on it right now. It might not age well a few weeks from now. It's great to have hope. Better to have something real and tangible to hope for, you know? Unless he announces a detailed and comprehensive plan for how that's going to happen, I'm saying fooey to that.

I want to believe that. I hope a lot happens in the next two weeks. I think he really got ahead of himself, though. Everyone wants this over as fast as possible.

 

If the site linked below is legit, there were 40,000 Reported additional cases worldwide just from Sunday to Monday. The great majority of those are listed as 'mild' but I think any case that doesn't require at least hospitalization, and possibly a ventilator is listed as 'mild'. It might sound theatrical but I don't see how anyone can push to have businesses reopening by Easter, 19 days from now, without writing off hundreds of thousands of Americans.

edit* Taking another look at that same link, in 60 days we went from reporting 300 additional cases in a day, Jan 22-23 to 40,000. That might be explained in part by the step up in how many tests are being given, but still... you want to reopen businesses in 19 days?

I'm not sure if that's Trump making a wish that conditions will be suitable by then to reopen, or if that's his actual agenda.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

That's what I'm trying to figure out. To me, there's just so much that would need to be worked out to have any real hope of pulling that off... and it's not like it's easy to get everybody on the same page in this country to begin with. Just from a logistical standpoint it would be a drastic shift from quarantining because we don't know what's going on and we have to keep people from clogging up hospitals to having it all figured out enough to have people out and about without it spreading like crazy. It would be a massive breakthrough, which you'd expect there would be details on. The fact that there isn't makes me dubious.

I mean, testing is really ramping up, and I'm sure there's been a lot of focus on that. But it still seems like we are a little ways off from real predictions. Even he had to throw the little caveat in that if we determine that we have to continue tightening down by then, we will. I think he's confident that as testing goes up, we'll have a more favorable picture of things, and that it'll be fast and easy to mobilize on it... for no other reason than that being the only way it makes sense to me.

It sounds like majorly wishful thinking and I highly doubt it'll go down like that.

 

This sounds eerily realistic to me

 

Lines up closely with the site I have been using from Johns Hopkins.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

One thing that is new about this outbreak is the unprecedented level of information sharing. I'm sure the quality of the information varies greatly, but it is probably good enough to paint a general picture, and it is not looking good.

 

It's hard to tell to what degree that's true or not.

*edited to come across less shitty.

 

I want to know if we get this "free check" in the mail, who is going to get hookers and blow with it?

On a serious note: I don't think the money will be used for its intended purpose if this becomes a thing.