The Coronavirus Thread

Discussion in 'Random Thoughts' started by purr1n, Mar 16, 2020.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Thad E Ginathom

    Thad E Ginathom Friend

    Pyrate
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2015
    Likes Received:
    14,265
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    India
    Bottom line is not political point-scoring. It is that none of us want to die of this thing, nor do we want our friends, where-ever in the world the may be, and whether their politics agree with ours or not, to die either. And yes, I know, catching it does not mean certain death: but it can get rather nasty.

    Added to which, some of us are a little old. I may have said before: I've never before been in one of the at-higher-risk categories in a world happening, that was always other people. But now I am, and inevitably, many of my friends are too. This is a bit scary.

    And there are three world leaders whose actions I am interested in following. One affects me directly, another indirectly, and the actions of the third not only affect another country that I feel for, but have the greatest ripples around the world.

    Enough said. I don't get a political vote in the country I have come to live in, but, if I ever do find myself voting in the future, I'm going to be very careful about hair colour.

    Apart from that, I'm a bit of a chameleon and have been comfortable on the factory floor and in the yacht club lounge. That is partly because I can do the upper-middle-class-Brit thing that I was born into, but also because it's what people have in common that is more important than what we don't.
     
  2. yotacowboy

    yotacowboy McRibs Kind of Guy

    Pyrate Contributor
    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2016
    Likes Received:
    10,902
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    NOVA
    Home Page:
    Yeah man, I've spent enough time in NYC that the out-f**k someone mentality felt like a good way to keep yourself on your toes. But there's also the brother-by-city (or even block) that's just not the same in ANY other city i've ever lived in. It's hard to explain to folks that aren't tourists. But it's invigorating. And, it's also why despite the utterly horrifying numbers we're hearing about COVID-19 in NYC, I feel like there's probably entire neighborhoods that are out there yelling "f**k You, germ shit". (knowing, yes, germs and viral infections aren't the same thing, and that "will power" ain't gonna fix f**k all, but there's a toughness to NYC that i don't think SFC has).
     
  3. YMO

    YMO Chief Fun Officer

    Pyrate Contributor
    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2018
    Likes Received:
    10,590
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Palms Of The Coasts, FL
    Yes, we do have the vibe that we are known for. We don't show it too much unless something serious has happen.

    But for me that isn't enough for me to come back Then again, I do truly believed if I stayed in NY when growing up I would most likely be selling stuff, gangbanging, and be arrested and throw in jail. I was heading towards that direction when my family just got enough money to bail out that POS public housing and move to FL.

    Today NYC is wonderful if you have the money, patience and savvy to survive. But you know, I was getting sick of tired of being "on" all the time. At least in FL you can relax a little and not worrying about some guy trying to come up behind your back with a gun and rob your ass.
     
  4. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

    Pyrate
    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2016
    Likes Received:
    1,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Toronto, ON, Canada
    What we desperately needed was another forum for the exchange of opinions about how horrible Donald Trump is. And finally we arrived.
     
  5. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

    Staff Member Pyrate BWC
    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2015
    Likes Received:
    90,033
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Padre Island CC TX
    Yes, of course, not just TW and SK doing a good job, but you should know what I mean: the USA sucks at this. Lack of experience, makeup of the people, bad attitudes, never having a Thanos level event, etc

    Here is the latest deaths / 1M per day.

    NY and NJ showing little signs of slowing. Deaths are still accelerating. Have WA and MI hit their peak? We'll get a better idea in the next few days. CA and FL are chugging along. Low but accelerating, but not at a crazy rate like NY or NJ. If CA and FL can hit their peak at this slow rate, these states will be relatively OK.

    I dunno the reasons for the differences. I don't live in NY so I don't hear their local news or the word on the street.

    From what I am aware, the SF Bay Area was taking steps before the rest of the state (awareness, caution, restaurant and bar closures, etc.). El Lay soon followed. And California took steps to lockdown before any other state with the exception of Washington. I didn't vote for the dude, but Gavin Newsome has earned my respect with his composure and how he's handled this. It took some balls to close the state.

    And like what I said, Michigan as of last week was still "ain't gonna stop me from seeing my grankids" or "we're out in the boonies". The boonies argument may have some merit. The fact is, there isn't much traffic between the boonies areas to the CV-19 epicenter in Wayne County. However, there are always going to a few people moving about, so that small dip for MI could very well be temporary. As Wayne / Oakland county dip, the rest of MI could increase just like that if folks don't take it seriously.

    I hope that NY peaks soon. This is crazy.

    upload_2020-4-4_18-0-57.png
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  6. Metro

    Metro Friend

    Pyrate
    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2016
    Likes Received:
    1,601
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    San Francisco
  7. Deep Funk

    Deep Funk Deep thoughts - Friend

    Pyrate
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2015
    Likes Received:
    9,029
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Amsterdam
    Home Page:
  8. plcamp

    plcamp New

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2020
    Likes Received:
    13
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Location:
    Ottawa
    I quite like this guy in S Korea..worth watching, no BS.
     
  9. james444

    james444 Mad IEM modding wizard level 99

    Pyrate Flathead IEMW
    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2016
    Likes Received:
    2,101
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    Vienna, Austria
    IMHO: very efficient testing, contact tracing and isolation of infected people.

    Tbh, I don't get the fuss about travel bans, because it's much more important how you handle virus spread *inside* your borders. Italy shut down Chinese flights the same day as the US, yet it has fared far worse than some other EU countries, which shut down flights 2-3 weeks later, but implemented better testing and tracing procedures.

    Ultimately, there'll be no way around ramping up efficient testing / tracing / isolation for any affected country, in order to get its economy back up and running after the pandemic peak. According to calculations for Germany, achieving herd immunity without healthcare system overload would take about 10-15 years (likely similar in the US), so this is not a viable option. A vaccine may help, but nobody knows when it will be available and how long it will then take to vaccinate at least the high-risk cases.

    So it seems, for some time after the first wave, we'll have to take the risk of new outbreaks and try to contain them, while simultaneously bringing the economy back to life. In the EU, there's growing consensus that this might not be possible without automated phone-based contact tracing. Fraunhofer Institute (yes, the one that invented mp3) is already offering a decentralized and anonymous solution, since it's expected that EU-citizens would not accept the "big brother" apps used in Asian countries.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-cracks-code-for-coronavirus-warning-app/

    Last not least, once countries have gained the ability to very quickly identify and contain new outbreaks *inside* their borders, they might as well rethink their stance on keeping the doors shut...
     
  10. Boops

    Boops Friend

    Pyrate
    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2015
    Likes Received:
    3,188
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    New York
    Some thoughts on what things are like currently in Jackson Heights, Queens. I’m living about a 7-minute walk away from Elmhurst hospital.

    Ambulance sirens are basically constant. Yes NYC has a lot of noise, sirens, etc that you get used to, but this is different.

    The neighborhood is taking social distancing very seriously. Mask use when out and about is probably at 75% and heading towards 100%.

    There are lines to enter most grocery stores and pharmacies due to restrictions on how many people can be inside at once. I waited for an hour to get into one of our main grocery stores at mid-day. Once inside, shopping was easy and food/supplies are well stocked except for toilet paper.

    People are for the most part calm, courteous, etc. Haven’t seen any ugly scenes or squabbling over hand sanitizer, etc.

    NYC stick-togetherness is in full effect. I live in a 360-unit co-op apartment block and we’ve set up multiple mutual aid groups to help elderly residents, or anyone else, get shopping done, laundry, etc. We’ve got a once-a-week Zoom set up to do a group check-in, socialize, give emotional support. Many other buildings in the neighborhood are doing the same. American-style self reliance is fine, but from what I’ve experienced NYC is good at this kind of group reliance and support at tough times.

    Being stuck inside a small apartment with two 4-year-olds is difficult. The weather is beautiful and the playgrounds are unsafe. This sucks. Working from home as a parent of small kids who can’t go to school is almost impossible. I’m going to introduce them to Animal Crossing soon.

    We know about a dozen people who have had COVID. Thankfully all have been able to get through at home.

    I have never washed my hands so much in life. I recommend putting a pump bottle of lotion next to the sink. Use it every time you wash your hands. I did this too late. Skin is finally looking and feeling somewhat normal after weeks of lizard hands.
     
  11. sorrodje

    sorrodje Carla Bruni's other lover - Friend

    Staff Member Pyrate MZR
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2015
    Likes Received:
    2,812
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Dijon / Burgundy / France / EU
    Looks very much like what I'm currently living in my town in France. :) .
     
  12. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

    Staff Member Pyrate BWC
    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2015
    Likes Received:
    90,033
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Padre Island CC TX
    My parents shipped me some masks (of course, having got back from Taiwan when this thing first hit!)

    I went out last night for an ice cream run for the family. I'd say mask compliance is 30% at the local Albertsons. Earlier I wondered if masks would increase risky behavior, but after what I observed last last night, I'm starting to feel that those without masks may be taking things less seriously, not washing hands, keeping distance, etc. We are not hit as hard as Queens, so folks here are like whatever.

    • Very efficient testing - nope, probably not even so in a month - lots of tests still outstanding in the USA, although CA seems to have caught up - but that still doesn't mean we have the capability to test everyone with initial symptoms.
    • Contact tracing - never, Americans take their privacy too seriously, even though they have no idea that Facbook, Google, and the credit agencies know everything about them.
    • Isolation of infected people - maybe, but how compliant will Americans be if it's self-quarantine? This is the country where people drive slow, completely oblivious to anyone else, in the highway passing lane, and where using turn signals is optional.
    I'd love to see contact tracing. It can be easily done by Apple and Google right now. I'm thinking a cool app with a heatmap of where everywhere where CV-19 has been with the heat levels lowering over X days to zero. But those companies would never allow it even with anonymity. Americans would rather die than give an inch of their perceived privacy.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2020
  13. squishware

    squishware Friend

    Pyrate
    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2019
    Likes Received:
    425
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    on a whole other plane
  14. haywood

    haywood Friend

    Pyrate
    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2015
    Likes Received:
    764
    Trophy Points:
    93
    I read that once patients required a ventilator that survival rates were very poor, something like 25%, so 60% would be a big improvement.
     
  15. shotgunshane

    shotgunshane Floridian Falcon

    Staff Member Pyrate Flathead IEMW
    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2015
    Likes Received:
    6,366
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Clear, clear water
    Great lesson on statistical analysis with Coronavirus: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

    The numbers we are bombarded with daily, hourly even, are meaningless without an understanding of how testing is conducted. The article above is lengthy but well worth the read. It makes it clear that understanding the numbers and what they mean are difficult.
     
  16. 9suns

    9suns [insert unearned title here]

    Pyrate
    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2017
    Likes Received:
    1,754
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    EU
    I hope you guys are doing well and are safe during the lockdown, in Spain the death count at this moment is 12500 people, the stupid virus is very dangerous, way worse than the flu.

    I would like to give an update on what I posted a couple of weeks ago (call centers, unemployment, etc)

    I'm FINALLY working from home since monday, because...police warned to close down everything if we weren't given the chance to work from home. Surprise, surprise, from friday to monday everything was done and running smoothly without any BS in between, and I am not unemployed (they can't! online and telephone banking is an essential service). Still, very sad that what counted is not the 800 people death per day, but a police warning saying they'll be inmediatly closed and fined.

    Anyway, stay safe and be strong during this crap times!
     
  17. randytsuch

    randytsuch Friend

    Pyrate
    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2017
    Likes Received:
    262
    Trophy Points:
    65
    Location:
    Los Angeles, Ca
    Riverside County just made mask wearing mandatory, I expect more people in so cal to wear masks. I haven't been but will start from now on whenever I go shopping. I did wear gloves last time I went shopping, at Target.
    Wife cut up an old pillowcase to make some diy masks this morning.
     
  18. dmckean44

    dmckean44 In a Sherwood S6040CP relationship

    Pyrate
    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2016
    Likes Received:
    1,429
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    Peoria, IL
    We're expecting that to happen here next in San Diego country (it's already mandatory for workers), we've been sewing masks for friends and we currently have 50+ orders. The best we can do is a cloth mask with 5 micron filter fabric insert.
     
  19. CEE TEE

    CEE TEE MOT: NITSCH

    Pyrate IEMW
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2015
    Likes Received:
    3,750
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    California Bay Area
    Home Page:
    Kaiser's instructions for making masks:
     

    Attached Files:

  20. haywood

    haywood Friend

    Pyrate
    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2015
    Likes Received:
    764
    Trophy Points:
    93
    I saw this earlier and thought it was interesting, the filtrete filter she’s using is made by 3M. There’s a higher grade version that’s a bit better and obviously there are probably better methods of using it in a mask but this would work in a pinch.

    https://vm.tiktok.com/t5wexm/
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page